Cubs in 7

Updated 2026 Cubs Roster Predictions

By

Robert Erickson

Published on

in

We are almost 2 full weeks into Spring training, and I’m not very interested in posting about an exhibition against Italy that was contained within an exhibition (except to say that Cade Horton continues to look good).

The only major move the Cubs made since my last roster prediction was the signing of Michael Conforto. At the time, I felt like it was a hedge against poor performance or injury for Moises Ballesteros as the DH against right-handed pitching. But the injury to Tyler Austin has changed the formula, potentially adding another available spot for a bench player.

Beyond the Austin and Conforto news, the Cubs brought Ben Cowles back on waivers, and Jordan Wicks has been dealing with arm issues which paused his throwing program. The rest of the input for my speculation is on results from Spring games – which must be taken with a huge grain of salt. I have not been able to watch all the games – either due to schedule conflicts or because they simply were not televised – and much of the information about which players are going to make the roster is based on how they looked and not what they did.

Patrick Mooney of the Athletic came up with his speculation of the roster a few days ago:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7071426/2026/02/26/cubs-roster-projection-2-0-new-developments/

I agree with almost all of his choices, except for the final bullpen spot.

Locks (20):

Matt Shaw has done enough this Spring to move into the lock area. He’s been a bit shaky in the outfield, but I simply do not see a scenario in which he does not make the team, now that all the trade rumors are behind us.

There is only one player I am somewhat concerned about, and that is Jameson Taillon. He’s had three starts, and he’s been knocked around in all three. It will actually be interesting to see how he does for Team Canada, as those games in the WBC will actually count for something. He’s a veteran whose spot is practically assured, so he might be trying a few things out. But 6 homers allowed in six innings is not getting it done.

I have light concerns about Caleb Thielbar, who had one horrible inning and Shota Imanaga, who gave up 3 home runs to the White Sox. But Thielbar has had a couple good outings. And Imanaga appears to be recovered from his velocity issues, so he might have been a bit unlucky.

Near Locks (1)

    This might be an overreaction based on a single game where he rifled a couple of hits to the opposite field, but he just looks like a professional hitter. I think he’ll be the primary DH against righties, plus he would be a valuable third catcher, who would give the Cubs the flexibility to play both Amaya and Kelly against a lefty starter if they so choose.

    I doubt he’ll get much time behind the plate in 2026, which would be my only reservation in having him on the opening day 26-man roster. But in this case, helping the Cubs win now is more important than getting him reps on defense.

    Probables (1)

    The left handed relievers on the Cubs 40-man Roster have had a very rough go of it so far, but Milner has probably been the best of the bunch with a 6.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. On the plus side, his FIP is 2.37.

    Possibles (9)

    With Justin Steele unlikely to pitch until May or June and Tyler Austin out for “months”, there are now 4 spots up for grab at the back end of the roster – 2 position players and 2 pitchers (assuming the Cubs will go with a 13/13 split).

    I’ve been keeping a running tally of the race for the fourth outfield sport between Alcantara, McCormick, Carlson, Conforto and Dean. Right now, Dylan Carlson appears to have separated himself from the pack, but I’m not yet ready to move him to the probable area. Based on his limited playing time, Alcantara may get moved to “Unlikely”, as I think the Cubs want him to get more at bats in Iowa. Unlike Ballesteros, who would be in the starting lineup most days, Alcantara would be riding the bench in Chicago.

    From the pitchers side, I moved Hollowell into the possible area based on his great start (he has a -1.63 FIP, striking out 8 of the 11 batters he’s faced). But this can turn around quickly with one bad outing. Beyond Hollowell, both Ben Brown and Javier Assad have looked very good. There’s a chance that the Cubs will want both to be starting in Iowa, to make sure the Cubs have depth in case of injury. But if both continue to do well, I could see at least one of them making the opening day 26.

    Based solely on performance, Porter Hodge and Luke Little are in real danger of moving out of this tier. They both need to prove that they can throw strikes and get outs if they want to get one of those bullpen spots. Jacob Webb, who was brought in as a free agent has not looked great in his two outings, and will his relatively small price tag ($1.5M), I don’t think he is guaranteed a spot.

    Unlikely (14)

    Moving up to this list is BJ Murray, who has gotten a ton of playing tie this spring. While I still think it is unlikely he makes the opening 26, the Cubs do need a backup first baseman, and he can play there. He’s also getting older as a prospect, so this may be a make or break year for him.

    Also moving up is Bethancourt, but only because of the possibility of an injury to Kelly or Amaya, which would immediately move him to near lock, as I don’t think they want Ballesteros to be the primary backup catcher.

    Patrick Mooney put Collin Snider on his opening day roster prediction, as he wanted to include one non-roster pitcher. M early bet would have been on Trent Thornton, but he has not made it into a game yet, possibly still recovering from his torn Achilles that he suffered last season. I’m going to keep all the NRI guys at “Unlikely” for now.

    Jordan Wicks suffered an arm injury which halted his throwing program, and makes him a longshot to make the regular season roster.

    With the injury to Wicks and the struggles of Luke Little, Riley Martin and Ryan Rolison have had an opportunity to push for a spot as a third lefty in the bullpen, but so far, not so good.

    Very unlikely (6)

    Ben Cowles was DFA’d to make room for Shelby Miller, then was picked up by the Blue Jays, was DFA’d again when they signed Max Scherzer, and was finally brought back by the Cubs when they put Miller on the 60-day IL. However, I’d expect he will be DFA’d again before the season when the Cubs need to make room for Carlson, Conforto and/or McCormick, and possibly one of the NRI relievers. Putting Austin on the 60-day IL would free up one more spot, but I’m guessing they will need 2 or 3. There’s still a small possibility that Justin Steele will be put on the 60-day IL, which would open up one more spot.

    Yang was brought in for organizational catching depth and Miller for some infield depth.

    Velasquez and Wright might provide some starting pitching depth in Iowa, but won’t make the roster. Neither has pitched this Spring for the Cubs.

    No Chance / Rule 5 Guys (9)

    Rojas and Ramirez have both looked good, but I still give them no chance.

    Injuries (3)

    Steele was cleared by his doctor for full throwing, but will not be in the rotation until May or June. According to another article by Mooney for The Athletic, the primary goal is to have him fully ready and available in October:
    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7079803/2026/03/01/cubs-plan-justin-steele-anticipate-long-playoff-run/

    Miller had a very brief stint with the Cubs in 2021. He was brought back this offs-season on a 2-year deal where in the first year he will be recovering from Tommy John surgery.

    Austin had a great chance to make the roster coming back over from Japan as a right-handed DH and first baseman. But knee surgery will keep him out for months, meaning the Cubs need to find another option to be the DH against left-handed pitching and a backup to Michael Busch at first, who will be playing almost every day this season instead of platooning. He could make an interesting addition in the 2nd half of 2026.

    , , , ,

    Read Next:

    Leave a comment

    Follow Us

    Categories

    Tags

    2025 astros baez baseball baseball-history bellinger boston bozo brewers bryant castellanos chicago chicago-cubs cincinnati-reds clown-show cubs dodgers free-agency history horror injuries kyle-tucker mets milwaukee-brewers mlb movies nba offseason payroll pete-rose philadelphia-phillies pitching playoffs prospects red-sox rule-5-draft ryne-sandberg seattle-mariners soto sports tigers trade-deadline tucker writing yankees