Spring Training Game Six Overreactions

I think I’ve been providing reactions over the past couple of Spring Training posts, so I’m going to try to do a better job at overreacting, as that is really what Spring Training is all about. Collectively, while most casual baseball fans have no idea what is going on in Spring Training, hardcore fans are analyzing ever pitch and at bat, ascribing way too much significance to the outcome.

And the Cubs losing by a football score of 14 to 7 to the lowly Rockies, when they finally put in many of their regular players, seems like a great reason to blow lots of things out of proportion.

So here are my overreactions:

• Jameson Taillon may lose his spot in the rotation if this home run generosity continues. Giving up home runs for Taillon is not new this season. He allowed 5 in 10 Spring Training innings in 2025, and then 22 in his first 17 starts during the regular season. But giving up 4 in only 3 2/3 innings, to the tune of a 17.18 ERA is awful. With Colin Rea available to grab the 5th rotation spot, Taillon will need to step it up this spring.
  OK, not really, but it would be nice to see a couple better outings from him.
  
• The Spring performance of the left-handers that are favored to be in the bullpen for the Cubs this year has been abysmal, and Caleb Thielbar just had one of the worst relief performance I’ve ever seen. Well, no one actually saw it because the game was not televised, but I saw it on the screen of my phone in the Gameday app. Bullpen regression is a real thing, and I’m sure we are all hoping that Thielbar can avoid a season similar to 2014, where he had a 532 ERA.
  Here was the sequence of outcomes in the 5th inning:
  -Single (advancing to 2nd on an error)
  -Double, run scores
  -Single, runner thrown out a the plate
  -Single, runner to 2nd
  -Single, run scores, runner goes to third
  -Runner on first steals second
  -Home run, 3 runs score
  So 6 hitters, and they all get hits. The only one who doesn’t score gets thrown out at home plate.
  
• Speaking of not great, here are the Spring stats of the Cubs lefty relievers on the 40-man roster. After a comeback by the Cubs yesterday, Luke Little cam in to pour some gasoline on the fire

Pitchers	IP	ERA	WHIP
Caleb Thielbar	1.1	33.75	5.25
Hoby Milner	2.0	9.00	2.50
Luke Little	1.2	21.60	3.60
Riley Martin	1.2	10.80	1.80
Ryan Rolison	1.0	0.00	0.00
Total	7.2	15.26	3.91

• Matt Shaw is still learning right field, as he dropped a ball he should have caught in the first inning (according to people who actually were able to view the game) and had a misplay in the 5th for an error. He did throw a guy out at the plate, though.
  
• One bright spot was that Cade Horton made his return to the mound for the first time in a competitive situation since September 23rd against the Mets, when he had to leave after 3 innings. He pitched 2 hitless innings allowing a walk and striking out 2.
  
• Here is the updated 4th-OF-o- Meter, with only Chas McCormick getting plate appearances

Player	PA	HR	R	RBI	OPS
Dylan Carlson	8	0	1	0	1.025
Chas McCormick	11	0	1	1	0.545
Justin Dean	12	0	2	0	0.333
Kevin Alcantara	0	0	0	0	N/A
Michael Conforto	0	0	0	0	N/A

• The Tyler Austin news, while not quire ruining the season, is a blow. Austin has an .884 career OPS against left-handed pitchers, and I think he was brought in specifically to mash lefties. I wrote last season how the Cubs had struggled against lefties, specifically starters: https://cubsin7.blog/2025/07/02/do-the-cubs-struggle-against-lefties-revisited/
  It continued into the season, as they had a .768 OPS against right-handed starters and a .700 OPS against left-handed starters. Although, for whatever reason, they did very well against lefty relievers, as the overall OPS was .751 against both lefties and righties.
  
  The loss of Austin means the Cubs need someone to fill the role of a backup first baseman. I think Matt Shaw can take most of the DH at bats against lefty starters, either as the DH, or giving one of the infielders or corner outfielders a day off from defensive duties. We might even see Carson Kelly get some time at DH, especially if Moises Ballesteros can be a backup catcher for those games. But while Michael Busch will be start8ing against most lefties, they might want to give him the occasional day off. Jonathon Long looked like he might be the guy, but he hurt is arm and will miss precious pre-time this spring. Also, the Cubs might want him getting regular at bats in Iowa. Another option might be BJ Murray, who has done fairly well this Spring – although he did poorly in his only chance at AAA in 2024, and spend all of last season in AA Knoxville.
  
  I would not be shocked if the Cubs went out and got another potential bench player who can play first and has a good track record against lefties. There are not many options available right now, but when rosters are announced, there will be lots of veterans players who will be DFA’d or opting out minor league deals. While none will be superstars, there could be a plyers who can fill the niche role that Austin was expected to take on.