Is a Matt Shaw Trade on the Horizon?

If so, it better be an offer that Jed Hoyer can’t refuse.

The Boston Red Sox need an infielder. After losing out on Alex Bregman and Brandon Donovan – as well as Luis Arraez and Eugenio Suarez signing elsewhere, there do not appear to be any other really good free agent or trade options for them. Rumors are flying that they have been checking in with the Cubs on both Nico Hoerner and Matt Shaw.

For a team looking to compete this season, I just can’t see the Cubs trading Hoerner for any price. But with Matt Shaw, who has now been had his role reduced to the Cubs’ primary utility player, I believe there is a possibility that he could be traded if the return was good enough.

The “offer he can’t refuse” line is obviously from the Godfather movies, and it is used several times. Fortunately, the context for which it is used when discussing sports trades is much different than how it is used in the films. The Red Sox are not using the threat of violence or death to get their hands on Matt Shaw.

In the context of sports, the line refers to an offers that is so good, a general manager or player personnel director simply can’t say no. The value of the players of draft picks being presented is much more that the valuation of the player being asked for.

So what does that look like for Shaw? Obviously he had great potential, and if he’s able to recreate his production in the 2nd half of last season (.258/.317/.522), he would be an excellent addition to the Red Sox. However, by signing Alex Bregman, it was obvious that the Cubs were not comfortable with the offense as currently constructed after the loss of Kyle Tucker. Alex Bregman gives them a proven major league hitter and strong defender, with several years of proven production.

But it is not like they are giving up on Shaw. This season he would be the primary utility player and backup in the infield (backing up 2nd and 3rd, with Hoerner shifting over to Shortstop as the backup to Swanson), and may even be a backup in the outfield. I’d expect him to play almost every day against left-handed starters, start 3 or 4 times a week, and pinch run in other games. The Cubs had an incredible run of good health among the infielders last season, but they can’t expect the same to hold this year, and having someone like Matt Shaw to step in would be very valuable.

Plus, with this being Nico Hoerner’s free agent year, the Cubs need a long-term solution at second base. An extension for Hoerner would make more as Shaw trade much more understandable, but otherwise, Shaw might be the heir apparent for that position.

But there are some reasons that a Shaw trade makes sense. One big one is that after several trades and promotions of PCA and Cade Horton over the past couple of seasons, the Cubs’ farm system is looking a bit shaky, especially in regards to pitching prospects. ESPN has the Cubs at 25th and Keith Law of the Athletic has them at 18th ($). They would need to find a replacement for Shaw at the major league level, but might be able to boost their farm system with a couple of decent prospects.

Unfortunately, this is not a Kyle Tucker situation, so the value the Cubs could get for Shaw would not be nearly as good a the Astros return.

I did a search to see if I could find some prospective deals:

Here is an good article I found from Josh Timmers on Yahoo!. He speculates that the Cubs would be looking for a top-50 pitching prospect (Payton Tolle or Connelly Early) and another minor prospect.

Brett Taylor of Bleacher Nation mentions the same two names here.

But are the Red Sox that desperate that they would trade a top pitching prospect for Shaw? And what would the Cubs do for depth if Shaw is traded, and they don’t receive an MLB-ready utility player (like Kristan Campbell or Marcelo Meyer) as part of the deal?

Ultimately, I’m skeptical that a deal will take place simply because I don’t believe either team will be motivated enough to make the trade. Shaw may not be proven enough for the Red Sox to give up major prospects and the Cubs do not have the incentive to give him up for anything less.

But who know…perhaps in the next few weeks, days or hours the Red Sox will call Jed with that “offer he don’t refuse”.