My Cubs Offseason Predictions – Revisited

After the Cubs were able to acquire Alex Bregman, I thought it was a good opportunity to revisit my predictions from November 20th.

My Cubs Offseason Predictions

1. Acquire another starting pitcher

Here what I wrote:

“There has also been speculation that if the Cubs don’t sign a free agent, they could go after a controllable starter on the trade market. They should have more leverage now than they had at the trade deadline, as the free agent route gives them an avenue they did not have mid-season. But the prices being asked for Gore, Cabrera and others may still be too high.”

The price was high, with Caissie and a couple other minor leaguers. But obviously that’s the route they chose.

2. Acquire a hitter to soften the loss of Kyle Tucker

“If they go the third base route: Alex Bregman, Eugenio Suarez and Munetaka Murekami are the names I think they’d be interested in. They were outbid on Bregman last season, and I think it could be the same this offseason. Murekami could be a good fit, as he could play some first and DH against lefties, with Shaw taking over at third. Shaw would be the new utility infielder, platooning against lefties and getting spot starts against righties.”

I was really skeptical the Cubs would pay a premium for Bregman, and still felt that was the day before he was signed. But adding Cabrera via a trade seemed to allow them to use most of their free agent budget on Bregman. I still expect some regression from the offense, with Bregman replacing Shaw and (most likely) Ballesteros replacing Tucker. But adding Bregman to the lineup is a definite improvement from and offense that was sure to lose Tucker.

If they don’t trade Nico Hoerner or Shaw, they also have their utility infielder to replace WIlli Castro. Shaw can also play agianst lefties instead of Ballesteros, wither at DH or in the field to give someone else a day at DH. I assume he will play 3rd or 2nd, but if he could play first base or a corner outfield, that would be very valuable to the team.

3. Sign 2 or 3 Bullpen arms – none being very expensive

“I see them shopping for bargain arms late in the offseason. Maybe they bring back Thielbar or Pomeranz, but Brad Keller probably priced himself out of a reunion with the Cubs by having such an amazing season while he is still relatively young. I see him catching on as a closer or starter somewhere else.”

I was right that Keller priced himself out of a return, but it sounds like he’ll be an expensive setup guy. Meanwhile, the Cubs were more aggressive than I thought will rebuilding the pen, adding 6 players. I was probably much to conservative based on the number of spots they needed to fill, and the lack of confidence in some of the relievers already on the roster.

The one thing I was right about was they didn’t spend too much on any of the relievers – much less than the proven closers Diaz, Iglasias, Devin Williams or Robert Suarez money.

Pitcher	AAV	Years
Phil Maton	$7.25M	2
Hunter Harvey	$6M	1
Caleb Thielbar	$4.5M	2 (mutual option)
Hoby Milner	$3.75M	1
Jacob Webb	$1.5M	2 (club option)

4. Fill out the roster with veterans on minor league deals

I still expect this to happen closer to Spring Training for a few players not able to get major league deals.

So, it looks like I was mostly on target with my predictions, but I didn’t really go out on a libm with any of they. My biggest surprise is how much (and how many years) they were willing to commit to Bregman.