Does Jed Hoyer slow play free agency?

When Theo Epstein stepped down in November of 2020, the reigns of the front office of the Chicago Cubs were handed over to his lieutenant, Jed Hoyer. Since that point, the Cubs have spent less on player payroll, relative to other teams.

Season	Payroll	MLB Place
2016	$186.8 Million	5th
2017	$172.1 Million	9th
2018	$194.3 Million	4th
2019	$221.6 Million	3rd
2020	$86.6 Million	3rd
2021	$144.0 Million	14th
2022	$151.0 Million	17th
2023	$189.9 Million	11th
2024	$231.7 Million	7th
2025	$214.0 Million	10th

As the payroll had seen a reduction, I think there is a perception that Jed Hoyer has been more patient when signing free agents — especially the more impactful ones.

So far in the 2025-26 offseason, we have already seen 6 free agent signings, but five have been relief pitchers, with salaries ranging from $7.25 million per season (Maton) down to $1.5 million (Webb). The other player signed, Tyler Austin, is a 1B/DH for $1.25 million, who is coming back from playing in Japan. So, I would not characterize any of those signings as “major”.

So lets look back at signings that were $9 million per year or more in Hoyer’s tenure.

Season	Player	Contract	Date
2021	No Signings over $10M	N/A	N/A
2022	Marcus Stroman	3 yr $71M	12/1/21
2022	Seiya Suzuki	5 yr $85M	3/16/22
2023	Cody Bellinger	1 yr $17.5M	12/6/22
2023	Dansby Swanson	7 yr $177M	12/17/22
2023	Drew Smyly	2 yr $18M	12/18/22
2024	Shota Imanaga	4yr $53M	1/9/24
2024	Hector Neris	1 yr $9M	1/27/24
2024	Cody Bellinger	3 yr $80M	2/25/24
2025	Matthew Boyd	2 yr $29M	12/2/24
2026	No Signings over $10M (Yet)	N/A	N/A

In looking at this list, there are not really enough data points to identify a real trend. Instead, I’d say that Hoyer had gauged the market, and gotten the players he wanted at the price he wanted, with the timing often tied to circumstance.

For Seiya Suzuki and Shota Imanaga, the timing of the signings were tied up with their posting deadline dates. Suzuki’s was quite late due to the lockout in the 2021-22 off-season. Stroman’s signing had occurred just before the lockout.

The Bellinger signing before 2023 was all about giving a player with injury issues a chance to prove his value. Hoyer was able to get him at a relatively good price in early December. Matthew Boyd’s signing last off-season seems similar, with the Cubs being willing to go a little above salary expectations for someone they rated highly.

The timing of the Swanson signing in 2023 was partially dictated by the signings of Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and Trea Turner between December 8th and December 13th of 2022. They were the other shortstops the Cubs had interest in that off-season, and with all of them off the board, there was time pressure to get Swanson to sign. Of course, Correa’s deal with the Giants and then the Mets fell through due to health concerns before he signed with the Twins in January.

The biggest waiting game Hoyer played was with Cody Bellinger in 2024. After seeing success in 2023, he was looking for a bigger deal. But he had to settle for a $30 million, 3-year contract with opt outs. Both sides played chicken until late February, but he ultimately signed with the Cubs.

As we continue though the 2025-26 offseason with no big signings by the Cubs I think a few things are clear:

1. Hoyer has not been prone to signing anyone at the top end of the free-agent market, and these are often some of the first free agents to go off the board.
2. Hoyer is not the kind to overpay anyone. I think the and the franchise have set values for players and they won’t pay over those valuations.
3. There must not have been any free agents starters or position players that Hoyer wanted to target early, instead identifying relievers that he must have thought were good value.
4. The market for third basement has not really been set, with Okamoto, Bregman and Suarez still available. The deadline for Okamoto is coming up, so after he signs, perhaps we see some movement. Although, if Bregman is still looking for more than teams are willing to give, this may stretch out. And Suarez may be waiting to see what Bregman gets.
5. There are still some solid front-line pitchers out there, but it might be that Hoyer is not willing to overpay any of them. If the Cubs want to add another starter, it might be via trade.

On social media, the signing of free agents is often characterized as a one-way proposition, with the Cubs owning all of the decision. But in truth, there are two other major components: competitors who might be willing to pay above the value of what the Cubs have identified for a player — and the players themselves, who might want to play elsewhere or want more money than the Cubs are willing to spend.

Fans might be frustrated that there have been no major signings this off-season by the Cubs, which is partially the responsibility of Jed Hoyer and their roster building/spending philosophy. But the last few years have shown that Hoyer isn’t just waiting. It also is a combination of other factors, and circumstances this year have played out so that we fans just have to wait.