Will the Cubs be involved in the Rule 5 Draft?

The Rule 5 draft is one of those baseball events that seems antiquated, but is a cool distraction from the “let’s throw this on the wall and see if it sticks” rumor reporting that occurs early in free agency. Although, as I’ve written this, Kyle Schwarber and Edwin Diaz have both signed huge deals. Although, we’ll have to see how much deferred money is included.

Nut back to the Rule 5 draft — It also provides an avenue for minor league players who are stuck, not quite good enough to make a team’s 40-man roster, but with enough talent to be on a major league team. Unfortunately, it can also be pathway to frustration, as the player might be hidden on the bench the whole season, and lose a year of minor league development.

Let’s take a quick look at last year, and what happened to the different draft picks:

1. Shane Smith – RHP – White Sox from Brewers – 25 year old. He had 3.81 ERA over 29 starts, and a 2.2 WAR make him a poster boy for a successful Rule 5 pick. Extra points from this Cubs fan for steaming him from the Brewers.
2. Liam Hicks – C – Marlins from Tigers – 26-years old. He stuck with the Marlins, earning a 1.0 WAR in 119 games and 390 plate appearances, with a slash line on .247/.346/.346. Solid, but not spectacular.
3. Garrett McDaniels – LHP – Angels from Dodgers – 25-years old. The first failed pick from last season, He was returned to the Dodgers after posing a 5.91 ERA in 10 games. You would think that toe Dodgers would lose more players in the Rule 5 draft, due to how great their farm system has been.
4. Noah Murdock – RHP – Athletics from Royals – 27-years-old. Another pick failure, he had a 13.24 ERA in 14 relief appearances. He was returned to the Royals in May and then became a free agent after the season.
5. Evan Reifert – RHP – Nationals from Rays – 26-years old – never pitched for the Nationals in the majors and was returned to the Rays in March.
6. Angel Bastardo – RHP – Blue Jays from Red Sox – 23-years-old. He was one of the rare rule 5 picks who was stashed on the injured list. He had Tommy John surgery in 2024, so while the Jays were required to have him on the 40-man roster in the offseason, they were immediately able to put him on the 60-day IL.. The Rule 5 rules around injury are a bit fuzzy, but I think he will have to be on the Red Sox 26-man roster for at least 90 days in 2026 for them to keep him, even if he is reinjured.
7. Cooper Bowman – 2B – Reds from Athletics – 25-years-old. Returned to the Athletics in March
8. Nathan Lavender – LHP – Rays from Mets – 25-years-old. Anther injury stash, he was not able to return from injury in 2025, and the Rays decided not to keep him on their 40-man roster this off-season, and returned him to the Mets in November.
9. Eiberson Castellano – RHP – Twins from Phillies – 24-years-old. Returned to the Phillies but is now a free agent.
10. Gage Workman – 3B – Cubs from Tigers – 26-years-old – The slightly odd pick from the CUbs last year. They drafted Workman as an insurance policy for Matt Shaw, and he did get some time in the majors, logging a .214/.267/.286 slash line in 15 plate appearances. He also made 2 errors in only 32 innings at 3rd base, challenging the notion that he was a good fielder. The Cubs released him, and he was picked up by the White Sox, who still had to abide by his Rule 5 status. He didn’t fare better there, striking out in 1 of his 2 at bats at the majors, and was returned to the Tigers in May.
11. Anderson Pilar – RHP – Braves from Marlins – 27-years-old. The Braves returned Pilar to the Marlins in March, but then resigned him as a free agent this off-season.
12. Juan Nunez – RHP – Padres from Orioles – 25-years-old. Returned to the Orioles in March.
13. Connor Thomas – LHP – Brewers from Cardinals – 27-years-old. Thomas stayed with the Brewers in 2025, pitching in on 5.1 innings before getting injured. The Brewers decided not to keep him on the 40-man roster this offseason, and he signed with the Braves as a free agent.
14. Mike Vasil – RHP – Phillies from Mets – 25-years-old. Vasil turned out to work out in 2025, but not for the Phillies. While they drafted him, he did not pitch for them, and was sold to the Rays in December right after being drafted. He did not make the Rays 26-man roster after spring, so they had to waive him, and he was picked up by the White Sox. He had a 2.50 ERA in 47 games, logging 101 innings. His 4.32 FIP and 1.25 WHIP are a bit troublesome, so we will have to see if his luck holds out in 2026.
15. Christian Cairo – SS – Braves from Guardians – 24-years-old. Was returned to the Guardians in March, and is now a free agent.

So, of 15 players taken, only 6 got any time in the majors. Only 4 were not returned to their team (with one missing the whole season). And only 2 – the first 2 selected – actually made an impact on the team who drafted them. Not much of a track record, if you just look at last season. Seems like teams are buying lottery tickets. And especially for teams not expected to be in contention, there’s not much downside.

One of the big reasons for this is that players can add Rule 5 candidates to their 40-man roster before the draft to protect them, which is what the Cubs have done in the past with Owen Cassie and Kevin Alcantara, and did this season with James Triantos and Pedro Ramirez. This can be an issue in the season, as teams sometime have to waive decent players and risk losing them to stay at 40.

I’ve looked at some lists for the 2025 Rule 5 draft, and the Cubs I’ve seen mentioned. MLB.com mentions 3 names: Brandon Birdsell (who may not pitch in 2026 due to surgery), Grant Kipp and Cristian Hernandez: https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-2025-rule-5-draft-candidates

There is a chance the Cubs could lose players or pick up players in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft. Here’s a good post from Arizona Phil on The Cubs Reporter on those names (which include former first round pick, Ed Howard):
https://www.thecubreporter.com/comment/288708#comment-288708

I’d also would not expect the Cubs to draft anyone, definitely not a position player. But with the number of open spots for their bullpen, they could take a flyer on someone with a live arm, and take them for a test drive in the Spring. That could be a bit tricky as they fill up their 40-man roster this off-season, but that – and the small fee – are the only potential negatives.