Imanaga “saga” reaches logical conclusion

It’s been an interesting few weeks for the Cubs and Shota Imanaga, and his option structure required multiple decisions by both sides. While social media has been filled with consternation on both sides of the keep him versus let him go argument, I think the situation reached a logical conclusion yesterday, with Imanaga accepting the qualifying offer.

1, Why did the Cubs decline the 3-year, $57 million option?

Sure the AAV was less than the $22 million qualifying offer he ultimately received. But the option also included a no-trade clause and a requirement to increase the fee paid to Imanaga’s former team in Japan, the Yokohama BayStars. I think the no-trade probably had more impact on the decision, as it would have severely limited the Cubs flexibility over the next three years.

One of the worst things about big contracts for starting pitchers is that theams are typically getting most of the value early in the deal. Here are the examples of 3+ year deals to starters in the offseason before 2020, which gives us some historic perspective:

Madison Bumgarner – 5 yr, $85 million with the DBacks – The Diamondbacks really didn’t get much value at all from the deal, as Bumgarner made only 69 starts over 4 years, compiling a 5.23 ERA, and dealing with multiple injuries before retiring

Gerrit Cole – 9 yr, $324 million with the Yankees – Cole has been good for the Yankees when he’s been health. He missed half of 2024 and all of 2025 with injuries, and is now 35 years old with #36 million owed to him each of the next 3 seasons. Perhaps he can bounce back, but $72 million for 17 starts over the last two years is not great.

Kyle Gibson – 3 yr, $30 million with the Rangers – Gibson pitched OK for the Rangers before being shipped midway through the contract to the Phillies, where he had an ERA over 5.

Dallas Keuchel – 3 yr $55 million with the White Sox – he was dominant in the Covid season with the Sox, and then had a 5.28 ERA with them the next season. He was then released by the White Sox in year 3, after posting a 9.28 ERA.

Hyun Jin Ryu – 4 yr, $80 million from the Blue Jays – Was good in the Covid year, but then had a 4.37 ERA in the second season, Seasons 3 and 4 were injury-plagued, as he made only 17 starts across those 2 years before returning to the Korean League.

Steven Strasburg – 7 yr, $245 million from the Nationals – the mother of bad pitcher contracts, as Strasburg provided the Nationals a grand total of 31 and 1/3 innings for $245 million dollars, due to major injuries that forced his retirement in 2022. Certainly he had been great for them, and helped them win a World Series, but their front office made a huge blunder by paying for past performance.

Zach Wheeler – 5 yr, $118 million from the Phillies – I think we finally found a success story, as Wheeler was excellent, and healthy, during this whole 5-year deal. He was only 30 when he signed it, so that might be a big factor. He then signed a 3-year, $126 million deal, and while he was really good in year one, he did get hurt toward the end of the season and missed the playoffs. It will be interesting to see if he can stay healthy the next two seasons, when he will be 36 and 27.

The bottom line is that signing a starting pitcher to a long-term deal can be very risky. Locking up a starter long-term sounds good, but the risk of injury and/or decline in performance makes shorter deals look better.

2. Why did Imanaga decline the 1-year, $15.25 player option?

This one is pretty easy – he knew he could get more money. Even with the issues of his 2nd half performance, and all the home runs he gave up in 2025, starting pitching is still very much in demand, and he knew he could get a better deal. Also, if he had taken that option, the Cubs would have had another, 2-year option the following season, limiting his flexibility in the future.

3. Why did the Cubs submit a $22 million Qualifying offer?

See the explanation above: starting pithing still comes at a premium. Someone would have given Imanaga a contract, probably for less AAV, but definitely more than one season. And the Cubs may not have found another pitcher of Imanaga’s quality that would accept a one year deal at that number.

If they are going after a higher-end starter, they will absolutely need to give that pitcher a very big number a several years. Getting a 2nd starter in the market then would have put the burden of 2 long-term deals on the franchise.

The other option is finding a younger starter in a trade, but the costs at the trade deadline for starting pitching showed that the trade route might be cost prohibitive. Teams wanted Horton and Shaw for a Gore or Ryan, and that does not make sense for the long-term.

4. Why did Imanaga accept the Qualifying Offer?

This is a bit more complex, and there are probably several reasons he ultimately accepted it. Perhaps he really likes the Cubs organization – and think they ware the best place to work out his issue with giving up home runs. Perhaps he is scared that the labor issues in MLB will impact the 2027 season, so he wanted to cash out as much as possible in 2026, and did not think anyone else would give him that much for one season.

I’m not sure the Shane Bieber contract, where he shockingly exercised a $16 million, one-year option might have given Imanaga some pause about how much he could get this offseason.

Whatever the reason, it does make sense that he accepted the offer rather than take the risk of free agency.

Now we wait and see whether we get 2024 Shota Imanaga or 2025 2nd-half Shota Imanaga.