Cubs Rotation: Ace, Embrace or Replace – 10/7 – Season on the Brink Edition

The latest installment how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or statistics driven…just my gut feel.

When it was discovered that Cade Horton had a cracked rib, and he had to go on the IL, we were all worried. And it turns out, it was for good reason. The other top starters for the Cubs had been a bit shaky as the season came to a close, and there was concern that they would not be effective enough in the postseason. A combination of decent starts and amazing bullpen work helped get the Cubs through the Wild Cards series, with Jameson Taillon proving to be the most effective starter. But two games into the Brewers series, all our worst fears have come to fruition.

Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
Black = No Change

Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series
No one at the moment.

Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series

Jameson Taillon – I feel like I’ve come full circle on Taillon this season. There was a period between April 2nd and May 9th that he didn’t allow more than 3 runs in a start, with 5 starts at 1 or 2 runs allowed. His kick change had started to work, and he was somewhat limited his home runs allowed. After two clunkers where he gave up 7 homers to the Mets and Marlins, he had one more start before being injured. Since his return, here are his lines:
-8/19 – 6 IP 5H 1 BB 1ER 4K 0HR
-8/24 – 5 IP 3H 0BB 1ER 3K 1HR
-9/10 – 4.1 IP 6H 2BB 2ER 2K 0HR
-9/15 – 6 IP 2H 2BB 0ER 3K 0HR
-9/21 – 7 IP 5H 0BB 1ER 4K 0HR
-9/27 – 6 IP 3H 2BB 1ER 8K 1HR
And in the Wild Card deciding game:
-10/2 – 4 IP 2H 0BB 0ER 4K 0HR
That’s 38.1 innings, 26 hits, 7 walks (0.86 WHIP), 6 earned runs (1.41 ERA), 28 strikeouts and only 2 homers allowed.
He’s been able to go more than 5 innings in 4 of those 7 starts, so I could see Counsell giving him a bit more leash in game 3 – although in a must win all bets are off.

Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game

Shota Imanaga – Home runs, home runs and more home runs. Imanaga has managed to limit the damage most of the season, but he got bitten with a huge 3-run homer in game 2, which changed the complexion of the game. During the regular season, he gave up 31 home runs, but 25 of them were solo shots, with only 4 2-run homers and 2 3-run homers. In the postseason, his 3 homers allowed were 1 solo,1 2-run, and 1 3-run. So while his propensity for giving up the longball was mitigated in the regular season, it has proved lethal in the postseason. Just think, if he gives up 2 solo shots last night, the Cubs still lead 3-2, and might manage their pitching differently.
Ultimately, this home run problem could impact the Cubs decision in the offseason of where to pick up the option for the rest of his contract. It’s a complicated option structure, so a deeper analysis can wait until the offseason. But what might have seemed like a no-brainer may require serious consideration.

Matthew Boyd – Here was what I wrote in my last update:
“With all the talk of fatigue, the good news is that it does not appear to have impacted his velocity. But his walks per 9 innings has gone up from 1.85 in the first half to 2.59 in the 2nd half, and batting average allowed from .227 to .259. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, so he really needs to be able to be precise with location, and his command has not been as good in the 2nd half of this season.”
He was good enough in a short outing against the Padres, but the 2nd half of the season chickens came home to roost in Game 1 of the NLDS. A rare Nico Hoerner error did not help, but Boyd didn’t do himself any favors, and his great first half of the season seems like a long distant memory.
He is under contract for next season, so I wonder if the Cubs make an effort to limit his innings and keep him fresh for the post season (see Dodgers, Los Angeles). But for this year, it seems like he may be cooked. Even if the Cubs have the chance, I’m not sure if he starts on Thursday.

Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent
None

Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training
None

Injured or Off Post-Season Roster:

Cade Horton – What could have been? It was the rib injury that derailed a season, and while the Cubs don’t know exactly how it happened (possibly a violent sneeze?), with the fall-off in performance of Imanaga and Boyd, and the inability of the offense to pick up the slack, we might be thinking about the circumstance of his injury all off-season. There’s still a miniscule chance he could pitch again if the Cubs pull off the miracle NLDS comeback, but it’s not looking good.

Javier Assad – With Colin Rea and Michael Soroka available as multi-inning relievers, the Cubs decided to choose Aaron Civale over Assad for the last long reliever spot. It was a bit surprising, but Civale has been effective.