Bullpen Confidence Rankings – 9/23

A bi-weekly assessment (updated to weekly for the final month) of how confident I’m feeling when the Cubs call on each member of their bullpen. These assessments are often not completely rational. This is my final assessment before the playoffs. I’ll be travelling to Chicago for the weekend, so we’ll see if I can come up with a playoff version next Monday.

This week brought the apparent end of the line for Porter Hodge this season, as he was sent down after a rough outing against the Reds. His replacement, Jordan Wicks, is a longshot for the playoff roster, unless the Cubs really want to load up on lefties. The bullpen had ups and downs, keeping things close in the two games the Cubs did not score, and surrendering runs in the games the Cubs actually scored. If the opposite had been true, they might have split the series, but instead they lost all four.

Red means a player has dropped
Green a player has moved up
Blue a player stayed the same
Orange the player is new
Bold eans the player will most likely be on the playoff roster if healthy

No gray hair (extremely high confidence):
–Brad Keller – He goes into the postseason as the best Cubs reliever. His exact role might come into question with Palencia seeming ready to return, but I think for Counsell his part in the bullpen is clear. Come in in the highest leverage situation in the late innings. It might not be for the last 3 outs, but it will be to get the most important outs against the toughest opposing hitters. He was able to go multiple innings early in the season, and I wonder if Counsell will try to use him that way during the playoffs.

–Caleb Thielbar – The only caveat to Keller’s role of taking the highest leverage late inning at bats is that if a couple of tough left-handed hitters are coming up, Thielbar will probably be used in that instance. Lefties are slashing .134/.180/.244 against him this season, which is phenomenal.

Wisps of gray hair (high confidence):
–Andrew Kittredge – He had a great run – 9 games, 2 hits, 2 walks, 12 strikeouts, and 0 runs allowed over 8 and 23 innings. And then he gave up a 2-run homer against the Reds in a game where the Cubs were begging for a shutdown inning. They would still have trailed without the home run, but a 3-run deficit seemed insurmountable. I still think he has a late inning role in the playoffs, but it would be nice to see him bounce back in these last 6 games.

–Drew Pomeranz – He also had a nice run, with 2 hits, one walk and 0 runs allowed over 6 2/3 innings over 7 games. But sandwiching those games were games where he allowed home runs. If the Cubs need a lefty relatively early in the game or if Thielbar is unavailable later in the game, Pomeranz will be probably by the choice

Some gray hair (medium confidence):

–Taylor Rogers – I see him making the playoff roster as a third lefty, with his most likely usage toward the ned of an inning where he needs to get out a left handed hitter, but does not have to risk pitching against too many lefties.

–Michael Soroka: – Soroka looked pretty good in his first game back, pitching a scoreless inning, surrendering a walk and getting a strikeout. Barring a bad appearance this week, I think he has a slight edge over Civale and Assad.

–Javier Assad – Assad only had one relief appearance, as Counsell decided to get the rotation set for the playoffs, and he was used as a starter in Cincinnati. He wasn’t great in that start, giving up 2 runs over 4 innings. With Hodge being sent down, I think he is in line to be in the bullpen for the playoffs. But there is still a numbers game, especially if the Cubs go with only 12 pitchers.

–Aaron Civale – Civale might be an odd man out for a playoff spot. He was one of three relievers to surrender a homer to Reds on the 20th, but had 3 strikeouts over 2 innings in that game. If Palencia is back, I think he is squeezed out.

Lots of gray hair (low confidence)

No hair left (no confidence)

–Jordan Wicks – I would expect him to pitch in 2 situations: a blowout game or after the Cubs have clinched the home field for the Wild Card. Maybe, just maybe, Counsell would want to see him in a high leverage situation against a lefty, but I hope not.

Not Applicable (minors or injured):

–Daniel Palencia – He hit 100+ in his only rehab appearance. He’ll need 2 or 3 games this last week to see if he is truly ready to come back, and what his role would be. I doubt that he’s made the closer, but I could see him getting high leverage innings in the postseason.

–Porter Hodge – One of the bigger disappointments of these last few weeks. His velocity returned, but the location of his fastball and his inconsistent slider proved not good enough to bring him into the circle of trust for the playoff bullpen. Hopefully he can be more of a factor in 2026.

–Ben Brown – AAA

–Ethan Roberts – AAA

–Ryan Brasier – IL (rehab) – Pitched in Iowa, but I think a playoff spot is a long shot.

–Eli Morgan – AAA – Even more of a long shot for a playoff spot, but he is back on the 40-man, as I think the Cubs want to see if he is a possibility for 2026. He ran out of minor league rehab time, and had to come of the 60-day IL, leading to the DFA of Nate Pearson

–Luke Little – AAA

–Gavin Hollowell – AAA

–Tyson Miller – AAA

Released/DFA’d

–Nate Pearson – DFA’d to make room for Morgan. He was great in AAA, but could not bring that success up to the majors this season.