The latest bi-weekly (moved to weekly for the stretch run) installment how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or statistics driven…just my gut feel.
As we get down to the final days, and the Cubs have clinched a playoff spot, we will see some maneuvering with the rotation to line things up for the Wild Card series. It appears Javier Assad will be coming back to rotation for one start, so he will show up on here and in the bullpen list.
Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
Black = No Change
Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series
No one at the moment.
Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series
Cade Horton – He’s checked all the boxes in the 2nd half of the season, including out-dueling Paul Skenes. At this point, I see him pitching game 1 or 2 of the Wild Card Series. I think they will probably go with a veteran (Boyd or Imanaga) to take the pressure of a Game 1 start, but Horton has pitched much better than both of them for 2 months. Despite all of his accomplishments this season, I still think it’s premature to call Horton an Ace, but hopefully he will merit this classification within the next couple of seasons.
Shota Imanaga – The home run streak continued, as he gave up 2 more against the Rays in his last start. That makes 7 games in a row allowing a homer (10 total), 9 or of 10 games (15 total) and 11 of 14 (19 total). Facing quality post-season lineups makes this a very scary number, as I’m not sure he’ll be able to limit the damage as much. Nevertheless, with the struggles of Boyd, I see him as the game 1 starter in the postseason.
Matthew Boyd – He was spotted a 4-0 lead in the playoff clinching game, but could not hold it. I think we are all hoping that he can pull things together in the playoffs and get past this rough patch he’s been on. With all the talk of fatigue, the good news is that it does not appear to have impacted his velocity. But his walks per 9 innings has gone up from 1.85 in the first half to 2.59 in the 2nd half, and batting average allowed from .227 to .259. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, so he really needs to be able to be precise with location, and his command has not been as good in the 2nd half of this season.
Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game
Jameson Taillon – I’m so close to moving him up a tier. And there are some who would move him above Boyd, and have him pitch in a 3rd game of the Wild Card series. His two starts have been good since he came back, including a strong, 6 Inning, 2 hit, 2 walk, 0 runs performance against Pittsburgh. But he’s only been in 4 games over 3 months, so while I think he will be on the playoff roster, and the 4th starter in a longer series, I’m not ready to move him ahead of Boyd.
Javier Assad – Assad is currently fighting for a playoff spot, as a swingman. He had his first relief appearance, going 2.1 innings allowing 2 hits and 2 walks but no runs. He is competing against Hodge, Soroka, Rea and Civale for one of the last couple of spots. He may have a couple of starts yet this year to make his case. And while he’s mostly been used as a starter the last 2 seasons, he did have 19 relief appearances in 2023, with a 3.07 ERA.
Colin Rea – Rea is back up a tier after two pretty good starts. He ran into some bad luck in his last game, as both of the runners Caleb Theilbar inherited from him ended up scoring, giving him a line of 5.1 IP, 7H, 0BB, 3ER and 5 k’s. I still see him as the primary long man in the playoffs, and could be used in the 4th or 5th inning if the starter is having issues. He might be especially productive in that role if one of the left-handers are starting.
Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent
None
Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training
None
Injured or Minors:
Cubs in 7 
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