The Cubs are on the precipice of a playoff spot in 2025, and it feels like it’s been way too long. Probably because it has.
When Theo Epstein was hired, there were two real hopes:
1. Win a World Series
2. Maintain a sustainable competitive team that would compete for the playoffs every season
While goal#1 was achieved – and took a bunch of the pressure off goal #2 – it has been 5 years since the Cubs were in the playoffs, and 7 years since they made the playoffs in a normal MLB season. While they did compete for a playoff spot the last two years, they fell short both times, and combined with non-competitive seasons in 2021 and 2022, it is clear they did not meet their second goal.
At some point during this offseason, I plan to cover some of the reasons why the 2015-2018 success was not sustainable, but for now, I really want to focus on the today – and some of the reasons this Cubs team has been able to end the drought.
The Emergence of PCA
He’s been in a slump…we all know that. But the poor offense from Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 2nd half of the season should not overshadow how great he has been when the season is taken as a whole. He is tied for 13th in WAS in the entirety of MLB at 5.2, which is something we never would have expected when the season began. It is also the highest value on the Cubs. And even when his hitting has suffered, he still provided huge value with his defense in center.
The Great Defense
Speaking of Defense, the Cubs have be staller. They are second in baseball to the Rangers in Defensive Runs Saved, and have 3 of the top 15 (PCA, Hoerner and Shaw) and 4 of the top 36 (Swanson) and 5 of the top 42 (Happ). And that doesn’t even count Carlos Santana, who is 17th.
Nico as Mr. Clutch
I almost failed to include Nico Hoerner in this list, as he is probably the most unsung Cub. But in addition to his great defense at 2nd, he’s been the one guy the Cubs could count on to come through in the clutch. He’s never going to be a guy who takes lots of walks, but even with that mentality, he’s 2nd on the team among regulars in On Base Percentage, behind only Kyle Tucker, and 2nd on the team in WAR behind PCA. He was talked about as a trade chip when Parades was going to be the third baseman, and they needed a spot for Shaw. But now it seems very unlikely they would let him go. His contract is over after next year, so it will be interesting in the Cubs try to lock him up this off-season.
The No-name Bullpen
My projection for the bullpen to start the season included Pressly as the closer, Hodge as a closer-in-waiting, Morgan and Pearson as set-up guys, Thielbar as a loogy, and veterans Brasier an Rea providing support. Well, as we know, very little of that worked out. Instead, Non-roster invitee, Brad Keller (2.16 ERA), has been the best reliever, Thielbar (1.94 ERA) has been much better than expected, Palencia (3.00 ERA) was an effective closer before his injury, Drew Pomeranz (2.20 ERA) was picked up off the scrap heap, and Andrew Kittredge (2.89 ERA for Chicago) and Taylor Rogers were acquired at the deadline. The bullpen has seen hiccups, specifically marred by some huge multi-run meltdowns. But overall, they have been solid, despite the turnover. And with the additions of a healthy Hodge, Assad and Soroka, they look to be well positioned for the postseason.
Filling the Rotation Gaps
The primary reason Colin Rea was not included in the bullpen was that he was forced to step into the starting rotation when Justin Steele had a season-ending injury, and Rea has been solid. Additional injuries to Javier Assad, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon have forced the Cubs to have some players start that was not anticipated, the biggest of which was bringing up Cade Horton. He has been nothing short of a revelation, especially in the 2nd half of the season – providing the Cubs with the playoff starter that everyone was hoping to sign in the off-season or pick up at the deadline. Matthew Boyd was amazing in the first half, and while he has not been as good recently, he’s kept most game close that he’s started. Shota Imanaga came back strong from his injury, and his limited the damage in most games despite a propensity to give up homers. Overall, the Cubs have the 7th best ERA for starting pitchers at 4.05, and this includes 15 starts from Ben Brown.
Improvements Behind the Plate
Last season was mostly a disaster for Cubs’ catchers. They slashed .215/.258/.343, and that was slightly inflated with some late-season magic from Christian Bethancourt and a 2nd half surge from Miguel Amaya. The primary culprit was Yan Gomes, who has a solid 2023, but hit a wall in 2024, and was awful, wit a -0.7 WAR in only 34 games. Cut to 2025, when Cubs Catchers have slashed .254/.312/.454, and OPS gain of 165 points. Free agent Carson Kelly has been the key contributor, but Miguel Amaya actually has a higher OPS than Kelly (.814 vs .790), and minor league free agent Reese McGuire has a respectable .663 OPS filling in for Amaya. The big challenge will be to determine if all 3 will make the postseason roster, as Amaya comes back from an ankle injury..
Finding a Third Basemen (Eventually)
The start of Matt Shaw’s season was extremely rough, and the players the Cubs had acquired to back him up (Gage Workman, Jon Berti, Nicky Lopez and Vidal Brujan) we even worse. Shaw had a 0.0 WAR, but the overall combined WAR for those players was -0.8. In the 2nd half, Shaw has a 1.2 WAR. And his defense has been excellent, especially when coming in on balls (per this excellent piece from Jason Ross at Northside Baseball). Unfortunately, the new guy who was brough in to back him up Willi Castro, has had a rough time as a Cub, with a -0.5 WAR, after having a really nice season with the Twins.
Honorable Mentions
There are several other positives from this season: Michael Busch has been solid; Kyle Tucker got off to an amazing start and had a great first half; Seiya Suzuki had a great first half; Ian Happ has had a great 2nd half of the season; Dansby Swanson has continued to show power as a shortstop while making great plays in the field; and Chris Flexen provided some much needed innings.
Overall, it’s been a very good season for the Cubs, as evidenced by 87 wins with 11 games to go, and most likely the top Wild Card spot in the NL playoffs.
Cubs in 7 
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