Bullpen Confidence Rankings – 9/16

A bi-weekly assessment (updated to weekly for the final month) of how confident I’m feeling when the Cubs call on each member of their bullpen. These assessments are often not completely rational.

Coming off the Palencia injury/blown save, things were not looking great last week at this time. We did see a blown lead against the Rays, but for the most part, the bullpen was stellar over the course of the past week. With Jameson Taillon joining the rotation, Javier Assad in now available in the pen. And we saw the return of Michael Soroka, who was back to throwing 95, and could have an important role down the stretch into the playoffs. Plus, Palencia’s injury ay not be as bad as first feared, meaning he could be back, as well.

Red means a player has dropped
Green a player has moved up
Blue a player stayed the same
Orange the player is new
Bold eans the player will most likely be on the playoff roster if healthy

No gray hair (extremely high confidence):
–Brad Keller – Keller allowed a run — everyone panic! No one can be perfect, and it was inevitable that Keller would have a slip, and it occurred against the Rays. He bounced back with a big bases-loaded strikeout against the Pirates to earn a rare save. Logic would have called for him to take on the closer role when Palencia went down, but Counsell has seemingly put him into higher leverage situations, in the 8th inning twice, against the top of the lineup against the Braves. It will be interesting if they face the middle/bottom of the lineup in an 8th, to see if Kittredge is used then and Keller comes out for the 9th.

–Caleb Thielbar – Counsell seems to be using him when the opponent’s best left-handed hitters are up, anywhere between the 6th and 8th innings. He had a bad inning in the loss against the Rays, allowing a couple of inherited runners to score.

Wisps of gray hair (high confidence):
–Andrew Kittredge – I almost bumped him up two levels, and I really should have already had him here. I’ll see if he can sustain his effectiveness in his new role as closer or possibly part of a closer by committee based on circumstance.

–Drew Pomeranz – He is just below Thielbar on the trust level against lefties, and will almost certainly be on the playoff roster. It’s kind of amazing that he was acquired for nothing during the season, as he’s been great, with a 2.25 ERA over 44 innings.

Some gray hair (medium confidence):

–Porter Hodge – He looked generally good since his return, although he’s had some trouble controlling his fastball. He gave up a home run on a poorly places 0-2 pitch against the Rays, and walked 2 hitters against the Pirates with a 4-run lead, forcing Keller to bail him out. His velocity is great, but he will need to prove over the next 2 weeks that he has enough command to be used in a playoff situation. If Hodge makes the playoff roster, that would mean only one of Soroka or Assad would probably also make it.

–Taylor Rogers – Rogers has been used sparingly recently, as he’s the #3 lefty option out of the pen. I think the Cubs will want a 3rd lefty for specific situations, making him more likely to be on the playoff roster than Assad or Civale.

–Javier Assad – With the return of Taillon, Assad has officially oved to the bullpen. His splits are much better the first time through the order – as is true with most pitchers – so hopefully he can continue that trend from the bullpen, where he’d most likely on go a couple of innings. If he is effective in the role, he has a good chance of making the playoff roster. But for now, I think Michael Soroka may have an edge if it come down to a choice between the two of them.

–Michael Soroka: – He is back, and the trade that was ridiculed an abject failure may have to be revisited a little. He is not the playoff starting pitcher that anyone wanted, but he has shown that his velocity is back and he’s been an effective reliever in the past.

–Aaron Civale – He is a bit of a forgotten man on the staff, but he did proved a couple of good innings in a 4-1 loss a week ago. At this point, he might be limited to mop-up duty in a lopsided win or loss. As the Cubs position for the playoffs, he might be used as an emergency starter on the last weekend if the Cubs are trying to set up their pitching for a playoff series. At this point, I’d doubt he makes the playoff roster.

Lots of gray hair (low confidence)

No hair left (no confidence)

Not Applicable (minors or injured):

–Daniel Palencia – He is already throwing, but has only 2 weeks to be ready for a Wild Card series. And even if he does come back in time, I’m not sure he would be back in the closer role.

–Ben Brown – AAA – he has spent very little time in AAA this season, primarily due to injuries. But with Soroka and Taillon back, it was finally time to send him down. I still see a route for him to be a contributor to the Cubs, but I strongly doubt we will see any more of Brown this season. But I’ve been wrong before.

–Ethan Roberts – Had another very brief stay with the major league club, but was sent down as soon as Jameson Taillon was ready, before he made any appearances. Barring multiple injuries, he will not be on the playoff roster.

–Jordan Wicks – AAA

–Ryan Brasier – IL – Allowed a walk in his only inning in AAA rehab this week. He was going to head back to Chicago to work on mechanics with the coaches. He’s a long shot to make the playoff roster.

–Eli Morgan – IL – Pitched in 2 games in Iowa this week, going 3 innings, giving up 2 hits, 3 walks, and 2 runs (1 ER). Another long-shot for the postseason roster.

–Luke Little – AAA

–Gavin Hollowell – AAA

–Tyson Miller – AAA

Released/DFA’d