The latest bi-weekly (moved to weekly for the stretch run) installment how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or statistics driven…just my gut feel.
I now have 6 players on this list, but I don’t think the Cubs will move to a 6-man rotation. Javier Assad appears to be the odd man out for now, but that could change depending on how Colin Rea’s next start goes.
Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
Black = No Change
Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series
No one at the moment.
Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series
Cade Horton – I’m trying to do everything I can to avoid getting too excited about Horton. He’s been dominant in the 2nd half of the season, and is the kind of pitcher who can win a playoff game on his own. He was the definition of a stopper, winning a game against the Braves that psychologically, was very important. The Cubs had lost 3 in a row — 2 against a very weak team, and it included a blown 9th inning lead. The baseball fan psyche can be fragile, and blowing late inning leads might be worse for it than just about anything. He also went a bit deeper in that game, going 6 and a third innings and 87 pitches, his longest outing since July 26th and most pitches since July 9th. I would expect Counsell to be a bit more careful with his remaining starts, especially with the division title out of reach.
Matthew Boyd – The Cubs lost another Boyd start, making it 7 of his last 8. But this one could not be pinned on him, as he gave up only 2 runs over 7 innings. He did allow 7 hits, but did not surrender a walk. Like Imanaga, he is in danger of moving down a tier if he does not finish the season strong. But like it or not, barring injury, he would be one of the pitchers the Cubs would use in a playoff series.
Shota Imanaga – There was a very interesting article in MLB Trade Rumors about Imanaga’s impending team and player options decisions. I’ve noted his very bad trend of giving up home runs, and the article goes into the root cause of the issue: his poor rate of opponents barrel percentage and the decrease in velocity. His FIP is not good, and I wonder what impact the wind has had on the difference between that and his actually ERA — specifically whether he has benefitted from the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field which may have turned some balls from home runs allowed to harmless fly ball outs. Personally, at about $19M a year for three years, I think the Cubs pick up the options, as I don’t see him as anything worse than a 4th or 5th starter, based on his command. He may need to make a few modifications as his fastball continues to lose velocity, but I think he is a unique enough pitcher to make the necessary adjustments. And it would be very difficult to fill that rotation spot with someone cheaper, unless they came from the minors. For this season, I’m a bit tempted to move his down, as he’s given up 3 runs in each of his last 3 starts. Honestly, the tier he is in might depend on the direction the wind is blowing. Hopefully the Cubs can be at home, and the wind is blowing in when he is on the mound.
Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game
Jameson Taillon – He had a pretty good start in his return from the IL, giving 6 hits and 2 walks over only 4.1 innings. Fortunately, the bullpen was lights out, allowing on 1 hit over the final 4.2 innings. With the expanded roster, I’d expect his outings to go 4 or 5 innings the rest of the season, and if he can limit the opposition to 1 or 2 runs, that will be perfectly fine.
Javier Assad – I don’t know what the Cubs have planned for Assad for the rest of the season. It appears that Colin Rea is staying in the rotation, and Taillon’s return probably pushes Assad to the bullpen. But until he actually has a relief appearance, I’ll leave him here. I would not be surprised if Rea goes 3 or 4 innings, and Assad comes in right after on Saturday against the Rays, but we will see. He might also get squeezed out completely if the Cubs bring up Michael Soroka, Ryan Brasier and/or Eli Morgan, but that would be a bit surprising. My guess is that Aaron Civale would be first on the figurative chopping block.
Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent
Colin Rea – Rea has a very nice game as a follower against the Nats, allowing only 3 hits, no walks and 1 earned run. It was good enough that the Cubs will give him another start this weekend against the Rays. The number of righty swing-man has gone up with Assad, Civale and Soroka potentially needing a spot. But I think Rea is safe based on his track record this season.
Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training
None
Injured or Minors:
Michael Soroka: – IL (shoulder) – He was supposed to have a rehab outing on Wednesday, but it appears to have been moved to today (9/11). Current reports are that he’d join the team after this one outing, so it will be very interesting to see what value he would offer the Cubs over these next few weeks. At this point, the trade had been a complete dud, but he has time to change a few minds if he can be a trusted bullpen piece.
Cubs in 7 
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