Cubs Rotation: Ace, Embrace or Replace – 9/4

The latest bi-weekly installment how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or statistics driven…just my gut feel.

I have 5 guys in this list, but this could change drastically over the next couple of weeks. I may even need to switch this to a weekly update for our last few weeks of the regular season and into the playoffs. After Boyd, Imanaga and Horton, the Cubs have lots of options as players return from injury, so we’ll have to see what they do.

Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
Black = No Change

Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series
No one at the moment.

Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series

Cade Horton – As we moved into the 2nd half of the season, the biggest perceived need for the Cubs was a starting pitcher who we would be confident giving the ball to in a playoff game. But all along, Cade Horton may have been that person. The Cubs have been exceedingly caution with Horton’s pitch counts through this second half of the season, and as the chance of winning the NL Central continue to dwindle, I would not be shocked if they even skip one of his starts to make sure he will be available in the playoffs. There was the blister scare he had, which would definitely be a concern in a postseason game, but for now I’m putting him at the top of the Cubs starters at the moment

Shota Imanaga – Pitching at the top of the zone when you have a below-average fastball velocity (at least in the current MLB) can be a dangerous proposition. Imanaga has given up home runs in 5 consecutive starts, 7 of 8, and 9 of 12. He’s given up multiple homers in 5 of those starts – giving up a total of 16 home runs in 12 games. He has been able to minimize damage by avoiding walks – or other hits. But as he would be certain to face good hitting team in the postseason, this is a huge concern moving forward.

Matthew Boyd – The last 5 starts, and 6 of the last 7 have not been great for Boyd – and the Cubs have lost all 6. He’s seen his ERA rise from 2.20 to 2.94 over that stretch. He hasn’t worked this many innings in his career since 2019 – and overuse is a concern. He has a about 4 or 5 starts left to see if he can get back on track, but could be another candidate for a little bit of rest.

Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game

Javier Assad – I’ve been really impressed with Assad in his last couple of starts, once against replacing Jameson Taillon. He’s given up 5 runs over 15 innings in his last 3 starts, and I’d expect him to continue with a roll in the rotation or bullpen regardless of the return of some of the pitchers with injuries.

Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent

Colin Rea – It might finally be time to move Rea back to a swing-man role. He had a fair outing against Milwaukee, giving up one 2 earned runs over 5 and 2/3 innings, but he allowed 3 hits and 5 walks. Then he had rough outings against the Giants (4.2 innings, 8 hits, 7runs – 6 earned, 2 walks) and Braves (4 IP, 5H 3 ER, 3 walks). With Taillon and Soroka, and even Aaron Civale as options. I think Rea still would have a critical role, providing multiple innings in support of a starter that was not able to go deep into the game. I’m just not sure if he should be that starter. I’m mianly keeping him out of the replace category in deference to the quality he’s provided this season, as a rotation mainstay amidst several injuries.

Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training
None

Injured or Minors:
Jameson Taillon – IL (groin strain) – One hint about how the Cubs are thinking about this last stretch of games is how they treated the injury to Taillon. According to the guys at the Athletic, Taillon was asked to take this IL stint, even though he thought he might be able to work through it. I think the Cubs want him 100% healthy so that he might be able to take a start in the playoffs – as opposed to being used to try to overtake the Brewers for the NL Central. But I’d expect them to want him to get a couple of starts in the majors before the season is over.

Michael Soroka: – IL (shoulder) – Reports are that Soroka’s velocity may have returned. He pitched 2 simulated innings on the 2nd, and the Cubs were “encouraged”. I may need to move him over to the bullpen list, as I really do not expect to see him ramped up to start any games. But he’s has been an effective reliever in the past, and he could still provide some innings yet this season to avoid making the trade be a complete waste.