A bi-weekly assessment of how confident I’m feeling when the Cubs call on each member of their bullpen. These assessments are often not completely rational.
Lots of shaking up in the Cubs bullpen, with Ryan Brasier going on the IL, the double-header additions of Luke Little and Gavin Hollowell going back to Des Moines, Jordan Wicks coming up and going down, the return of Porter Hodge and the addition of Aaron Civale.
Red means a player has dropped
Green a player has moved up
Blue a player stayed the same
Orange the player is new
No gray hair (extremely high confidence):
–Brad Keller – It scares me a bit for the future that the two best Cubs relievers this season, Keller and Thielbar, are both on 1-year deals. It also shows the volatility can can take place in a bullpen, as no one would have predicted they would be the two best relievers. As we get closer to the end of the season, the roles of Keller, Thielbar and Palencia will need to be watched.
–Caleb Thielbar – Could he be a two-headed closer with Keller? Probably not, but I think he will be used in the highest-leverage inning against lefties in any close game the rest of the season.
Wisps of gray hair (high confidence):
No one
Some gray hair (medium confidence):
–Daniel Palencia – Palencia, and the command of his fastball is starting to become a concern. Bringing him into a tie game has been a huge concern, as he hasn’t been able to maintain the tie in 3 consecutive games with that scenario. If his last 16 games, he’s only had 3 1-2-3 innings. And he’s given up runs in 6 of his last 11 games. These are just not closer numbers. Do the Cubs dare to pull him from the close role, and give it to Keller?
–Andrew Kittredge – He’s been a bit Jekyll and Hyde, with the extra-inning game against the Braves showing how good he can be, and the games against the Angels, where he gave up 3 runs in 2 innings were not so good. A few more good outings, and he’ll move back up, but for now, he is living in this tier.
–Drew Pomeranz – Pomeranz continues to be solid, although he did give up a homer to Colorado in the 11-7 victory, when things got much closer than they needed to be.
–Taylor Rogers – Rogers has had 2 straight terrible outings, giving up 6 runs in 2.1 innings. At this point, I don’t trust him against right-handed hitters at all, so Counsell will need to be very careful about when he is deployed, to avoid exposing him to righty hitters who are great against lefties.
–Aaron Civale – This week’s installment of overreaction theater is putting Civale in this tier after only 1 appearance. But it was 3 great innings, and he could really contribute, possibly even as a starter, down the stretch.
Lots of gray hair (low confidence)
–Porter Hodge – He was not great in his return, giving up 2 hits and 2 walks in one inning. But hey, it wasn’t a complete meltdown inning, which we’ve seen several times this season: https://cubsin7.blog/2025/08/27/porter-hodge-and-the-curse-of-the-bad-inning/
–Ben Brown – It feel like Brown will give up a run in every appearance, which he has in his last 11 appearances. But unlike other relievers, he always goes multiple innings. This is the only reason he is not yet in the lowest tier, but he’s hanging by a thread.
No hair left (no confidence)
No one – at the moment. Hodge and Brown are close, and Wicks would land here if he came back up.
Not Applicable (minors or injured):
–Jordan Wicks – AAA – He came up and pitched twice in mop-up duty, giving up a solo home run in his 2nd outing. This will be a big off-season for Wicks, to determine if he’ll be a contributor in 2026.
–Ryan Brasier – IL – Brasier headed to the IL with an injury that may have been causing his ineffectiveness. Barring injury or extreme ineffectiveness, I’d say it is unlikely we’ll see him again this season.
–Luke Little – AAA – He simply has not been able to carry over minor league success into the majors. He had an interesting outing against the Brewers, with 4 Ks in 2 innings, but also 2 walks and an error that led to an unearned run.
–Gavin Hollowell – AAA – He was able to pitch as a 27th man in the game that was supposed to be part of a double-header (the weather had other ideas), and got knocked around, giving up 3 hits, 4 walks, and 4 earned runs over 2 innings. But the Cubs must still believe in his peripherals, as he maintained a 40-man roster sport when Civale and Carlos Santana were added.
–Tyson Miller – AAA
–Eli Morgan – IL
Released/DFA’d
–Tom Cosgrove – Release to make room for Civale. The Cubs just didn’t need another lefty during the course of the season.
Cubs in 7 
Leave a comment