In my preseason predictions, I only had one NL Central team making the playoffs, and believed it was fairly weak compared to the rest of the NL. I saw four legitimate playoff contenders in the NL West, and three of the strongest teams in the league in the NL East. And I was way off.
But I wasn’t the only one. Here are the projected wins in 2025 by division according to PECOTA:
| Division | Wins |
|---|---|
| AL East | 422 |
| AL West | 409 |
| NL East | 406 |
| NL West | 406 |
| NL Central | 399 |
| AL Central | 388 |
But here is how things have actually shaken out:
| Division | Wins | Losses | % | Run Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NL Central | 346 | 309 | .528 | +231 |
| AL East | 340 | 312 | .522 | +217 |
| AL West | 329 | 327 | .502 | -76 |
| NL East | 318 | 332 | .489 | -90 |
| AL Central | 315 | 337 | .483 | -84 |
| NL West | 312 | 343 | .476 | -198 |
The Brewers have been the most surprisingly good team, and despite a recent rough patch, still have the best record and run differential in all of baseball. Meanwhile, despite an offensive drought in the 2nd half, the Cubs are tied for the 4th best record, and have the 2nd best run differential. The Reds are still above .500, and are in a position to overtake the Mets (who have a brutal schedule remaining) for the final Wild Card spot. And even the Cardinals and Pirates have not played too badly.
The AL East, with 5 teams that seemed like playoff contenders is the 2nd best division. They have 3 teams that should make the playoffs, and two other that while disappointing, have not been terrible. The biggest disappointment, the Orioles, have stayed within 10 games of .500.
The biggest disappointment in all of MLB are probably the Braves, who are 12 games under .500, and still below Miami in the standings. But the Mets, while still in the final Wild Card spot, have not been as good as expected.
The NL West has two really good teams in the Dodgers and Padres, but they currently sit tied for 4th for best record in the NL, when everyone was expecting a dominant year from the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks have been floundering all season. And the Giants, after a promising start, have been bad in the 2nd half of the season. But the Rockies have been bad enough to pull the division into the cellar when compared to the rest of MLB.
The final NL Wild Card spot
Looking at the final Wild Card in the NL, I was a bit surprised that the playoff projections still give a big advantage to the Mets. Fangraphs has it at 86.5% to 12.1% and ESPN has it at 86.3% to 11.9% — although Baseball Reference has it much closer, at 48.5% to 44.8%.
The Mets currently have a 1.5 game lead over the Reds, and a pretty tough schedule ahead, with games against the Phillies (7), Tigers (3), Cubs (3), Padres (3) and the Reds for 3.
But then I looked at the Reds schedule, and it is just as tough, if not tougher, with games against the Brewers (3), Cubs (4), Blue Jays (3), Dodgers (3), Padres (3) and Mets.
The 3-game series September 5-7 between the two teams in Cincinnati could be the deciding factor, with the Reds really needed 2 out of 3 games.
Cubs in 7 
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