The latest bi-weekly installment how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or statistics driven…just my gut feel.
Jameson Taillon is back! Before last night, I might not have included the exclamation mark, but after he gave up only 1 run over 6 innings – and no homers – to the Brewers juggernaut, I’m definitely going to overreact.
The Cubs…what should we call it…slump? Malaise? Downturn? Whatever it is, the offense has been horrible, and the bullpen has been just OK. But the rotation has really been strong, keeping the Cubs from a collapse, slide, fall and/or plunge. If not for the Brewers’ amazing run, the Cubs would still be fighting for the top playoff spot in the NL.
The one exception is the 5th rotation spot. Javier Assad was OK in his two spots, but was sent down to make room for the extra relievers the Cubs needed for the Brewers series. Ben Brown is now officially in the bullpen (I think), but he might start – or pitch extensively – on Friday due to the 5 games over 4 days this week.
Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
Black = No Change
Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series
No one at the moment.
Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series
Matthew Boyd – He’s been good but not as great in his last 3 starts. He got knocked around in St. Louis for 3 runs over 5 innings – which for him would be a very poor outing. Then he limited the Blue Jays to 2 hits and 1 walk over 7, in one of his better outings of the season, only to see it spoiled by Vlad Guerrero, Jr. hitting a 2-run home run – while the Cubs put up 1 measly run. He did not have his best stuff against the Brewers, almost surrendering a 5-0 lead, and going only 5 innings, but it was just good enough.
Shota Imanaga – Another victim of the slumping offense, Shota gave up 1 run over 6.1, 3 runs over 6.2 and 1 run over 7, and the Cubs won only one of those games. A big 2-run home run by the not-so-great Pedro Pages was the big blow in a 3-2 loss to the Cardinals. But he’s been striking people out, with 22 Ks and only 2 walks in his last 3.
Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game
Cade Horton – He was on an great run, with a 28.1-inning scoreless streak, which was broken only after he came out of a game, and one of his runners scored. He was definitely going to move a tier, and then came the blister. It was impacting his release, as he could not control his breaking pitches, allowing the Brewers to tee off on his fastball. Hopefully, the blister will be a one-time issue, and he can get back to his dominant ways. And with the lack of an off-day, it would be tricky for the Cubs if he needs to miss his next start.
Jameson Taillon -This is probably a BIG mistake, but I’m debuting Taillon in the Embrace tier after only one start back. He should probably be down with Colin Rea for the moment, but his big start against Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers have me too excited about the potential.
Here is a summary of the starts in his spot since he was injured on 6/29:
7/5 – Pomeranz(opener) + Flexen – 4 IP, 5H, 3ER, 2BB, 3K
7/10 – Flexen – 4 IP, 3H, 3ER, 3BB, 2K
7/21 – Brasier(opener) + Brown – 5IP, 7H, 7R, 6 ER, 0BB, 5K
7/27 – Brown – 5IP, 3H, 1ER, 0BB, 4K
8/4 – Soroka (injured) + Brown – 6IP, 3H, 2ER, 1 BB, 8K
8/12 – Assad – 4IP, 8H, 4ER, 1BB, 2K
8/17 – Assad – 4IP, 5H, 1ER, 1BB, 3K
Of those 7 games, only 3 had the starter or opener+follower go 5+ innings, and only twice did they give up 2 runs or fewer. There were only a couple of games that got out of hand early, but in 4 of the 7, the Cubs needed at least 5 innings from their bullpen. With Taillon back in the rotation, I would expect that to decrease. At one point, he went 5+ innings in 13 of 14 starts, before he hit a wall in late June, with 3 straight starts under 5 innings.
Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent
Colin Rea – Rea is getting closer to moving back into the circle of trust after two good outings against the Cardinals and Pirates. But I’d like to see how he does against the Brewers in his next start, as his last game against them did not go well (9 hits and 4 ER in 4 IP). It would be nice to see him keep that ERA under 4 (currenlty sitting at 3.99).
Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training
None
Injured or Minors:
Michael Soroka: He started soft-tossing, but there’s no official timetable for his return.
Javier Assad – Assad was OK in his two starts. He gave up a ton of hits a 4 runs in his return to Chicago, But only allowed 1 run in 4 innings in his second start. His stuff is not overpowering, but he can typically induce soft contact, and escape innings where he has allowed baserunners without too much damage.
Cubs in 7 
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