Bullpen Confidence Rankings – 8/4

A bi-weekly assessment of how confident I’m feeling when the Cubs call on each member of their bullpen. These assessments are often not completely rational.

The Cubs bullpen continued to struggle as July came to a close, and changes were certainly needed. And the came in droves, with Chris Flexen, Ryan Pressly and Brooks Kriske all being DFA’d to make room for Andrew Kittredge, Taylor Rogers and Mike Soroka (who is pushing Ben Brown to the bullpen, seemingly). Hopefully these changes can help get the bullpen back to the great form we were seeing in May and June.

Red means a player has dropped
Green a player has moved up
Blue a player stayed the same
Orange the player is new

No gray hair (extremely high confidence):
–Caleb Thielbar – He finally had a bad outing, giving up a single and a home run in an awful 8th inning over the weekend, where the Cubs wasted an amazing outing by Matthew Boyd. Hopefully this is just a blip, and we don’t see multiple bad outings.
–Brad Keller – I moved Keller back up, as he seems to gotten over his slight lull in performance. They used him against the heart of the lineup in the 8th yesterday, and he came through with some big pitches.

Wisps of gray hair (high confidence):

–Daniel Palencia – Palencia had his first blown save in a while on Sunday, but he limited the damage to 1 run, and the Cubs walked t off in the bottom of the 9th. The real problem is that he’s allowed baserunners in his past 6 outings, which is not good for a closer, as the margins are so thin. His FIP is up to 2.59 (with an ERA at 1.55). Now, if the Cubs offense could produce a bit more, and give him a 2 or 3 run lead, it would take some of the pressure off.
–Andrew Kittredge – It is really early, but the new acquisition from Baltimore looked great in his first two outings, and he appears to be in the circle of trust already. I’d expect to see him in the 7th inning quite often. And, if he had been available on Saturday, it may have been him, instead of Brasier, to take the 8th.

Some gray hair (medium confidence):
–Ryan Brasier – He has dropped a ties, after giving up 5 earned runs in his last 3 games. After getting the first two hitters against the White Sox, and almost striking out Mike Tauchman, he allowed single, double, home run to make an easy game very close. Then he walked the 7th hitter and gave up a single to the 8th hitter, before getting a line-out. And both runners scored o the single and home run given up by Thielbar. I feel like Counsell has tried to avoid using him in high leverage situations
–Taylor Rogers – With the Cubs acquiring Rogers, it will be interesting to see if they decide to go with 3 lefties the rest of the season. He had one good outing to keep the game within 1 run. He had some control issues for the Reds before coming over, walking 4 hitters in 3 and 2/3 innings over his previous 4 appearances, so hopefully that does not continue.
–Drew Pomeranz – After giving up runs in 2 of 4 appearances, he was very good against the Orioles yesterday. I wonder if he might be

Lots of gray hair (low confidence)
–Ben Brown – Is he a reliever? He’s on the roster, and Soroka has taken his spot in the rotation, so I guess I will assume he’s taken over Flexen’s role as a long-man. But I’m not sure. Maybe the Cubs are going to use a 6-man rotation, as no starter has been named for Tuesday or Wednesday (Tuesday should be Horton’s turn). But other than following an opener, Brown has not been used out of the pen this season. He was very good in his last start against the White Sox, which the Cubs really needed.

No hair left (no confidence)
Flexen and Pressly would have ended up here if either had not been DFA’d

Not Applicable (minors or injured):
–Ethan Roberts – Back in AAA
–Jordan Wicks – After getting beaten up by the Yankees, Wicks has had two starts in Iowa. one bad (4 IP 4H, 2BB, 4K 3R, 2ER) and a good start (4.1 IP, 1H 2BB, 4K, 0R). With the Cubs unable to get another starter, there is a chance we’ll see hi back in Chicago this season, maybe in September when the roster goes to 28.
–Porter Hodge – Hodge has had a fairly rough time in Iowa since coming back from injury. And he was actually optioned back to AAA instead of being on a rehab assignment (which I don’t really know the significance of). In 4 appearance he has 3.1 IP, 5H, 3BB, 2K, and 4ER.
–Nate Pearson – AAA
–Gavin Hollowell – AAA
–Tom Cosgrove – AAA
–Tyson Miller – AAA
–Luke Little – AAA
–Eli Morgan – IL

Released/DFA’d
–Brooks Kriske – Pitched in 3 games in July, allowing 0 earned runs, 1 hit and 3 walks in 4 innings. DFA’d to make room for Soroka. Hopefully, he’ll clear waivers and accept a demotion to Iowa.
–Chris Flexen – He continue to get hammered after my last update, and had a -0.6 WAR in July. The Cubs only brought him up because they would have had to release him from his minor league deal, and those first couple months were a pleasant surprise. But it all unraveled over the last month, and the Cubs could not afford to keep him on the roster.
–Ryan Pressly – It finally all came apart for Pressly over the last couple of weeks, allowing home runs in 4 of 5 appearances. He allowed 5 hits and 4 walks over that stretch, which, because of the homers led to 8 runs (7 earned). Similar to Hector Neris last season, getting a former Astros veteran pitcher just did not work out. For the layman’s perspective, he did not have good enough velocity and control of his fastball to make his breaking pitches effective. Perhaps the Astros pick him back up.