When wading through social media regarding the Cubs I typically see speculation that they could be in on two starters and two relievers in the trade market. However, if they were to add that much pitching, there would be several tough roster decisions coming up.
Recent negative results could make some of those decisions a little easier, but here are some of the decision that would need to be made.
Starter #1
This is the easiest decision, as adding a starter to the rotation to take the spot of Jameson Taillon would fill a massive hole. The Cubs have tried a couple different approaches to temporarily replace Taillon until they could make a trade, and they’ve been a disaster.
In the first 2 starts the Cubs went with an opener. The July 5th game against the Cardinals was actually headed for a win before Brad Keller had his worst outing of the season, giving up 5 runs in a 8-6 loss.
They used Flexen as a quasi-starter July 11th against the Yankees, and he gave up 3 earned runs in 4 innings. Thielbar and Wicks gave up 8 more across 4 more innings.
Finally, the Cubs brought back Ben Brown on July 21 against the Royals, who came in after Brasier opened with a scoreless first, and gave up 7 runs (6 earned) in 4 innings.
So, in those games, the Cubs gave up 31 runs. Fortunately, the All-Star break limited the number of times this was needed. But they still may use Brown one more time against the White Sox this Sunday, barring a trade a few days before the deadline for a pitcher ready to go.
So anyone the Cubs get to fill this spot will be a welcome addition. There could be a squeeze when Taillon comes back, but I’ll cover those scenarios if the Cubs add a second starter.
Reliever #1
This one is a bit more tricky, especially if Porter Hodge comes back fairly soon. Assuming Ben Brown is demoted for a new starter, and Hodge takes back the spot currently occupied by Brooks Kriske, someone else will need to be dropped.
Hodge could spend a bit more time on an injury rehab assignment. And there’s always the chance that someone else might suffer an injury, or go on the IL for some “impingement” that is lingering.
Here is the list of relievers that will not go anywhere, barring injury:
1. Daniel Palencia (1.49 ERA, 0.91 WHIP)
2. Caleb Thielbar (2.15 ERA, 0.88 WHIP)
3. Brad Keller (3.07 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
Here are the guys who have been effective, but ight be expendible:
1. Ryan Brasier (0.98 ERA, 0.87 WHIP)
2. Drew Pomeranz (2.30 ERA, 1.06 WHIP)
3. Chris Flexen (2.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP)
And then you have the guy who has not been hugely effective, but has a great track record:
Ryan Pressly (3.52 ERA, 1.49 WHIP)
While Pomeranz and Flexen’s numbers are still great, they’ve show signs of regressing lately. As the 2nd lefty in the pen, Pomeranz provides more flexibility. But Flexen is the only man who would provide multiple innings. But he could be replaced by a starter (Rea or Horton) moving to the bullpen if the Cubs get two starters. Brasier has been great, but mostly in lower leverage situations. But I don’t see them cutting a guy lose who has an ERA under 1.00.
The other tricky part is that Palencia is the only one of these guys who can be sent to AAA, so if any others are DFA’d, they is no way they would accept a demotion to Iowa.
At this point, I see Ryan Pressly as being the most expendable member of the bullpen, based purely on performance. As we get toward the end of the season, Hoyer and Counsell will have to decide if his veteran presence is enough to keep his roster spot.
There are lots of potential scenarios around injury, so predicting what will happen is difficult. Barring additional injury, I would guess that a bullpen acquisition would take Kriske’s spot, and Hodge would stay in Iowa on a rehab assignment until a spot opened up.
Starter #2
This is where things get very interesting. If the Cubs add a 2nd starter or when Taillon gets back, someone will need to be bumped from the rotation. It won’t be Imanaga or Boyd, so the candidates are Colin Rea and Cade Horton.
Both had ERAs over 5.00 in June, but they’ve been much better in July. Horton has a 2.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 3 starts and Rea has a 3.04 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 4 starts, including that clunker against the Royals where he gave up 3 home runs.
Rea could be sent to the bullpen, possible to replace Flexen as the long reliever. Or Horton could take Flexen’s spot — or could be sent back to Iowa, and possibly brough back up when rosters expand in September.
Taillon’s return would also force the choice, but it would be a bit down the road. And what about a possibly return for Javier Assad?
Will the Cubs be willing to spend enough prospect capital to find a starter that would be better than both Horton and Rea? Or will they be willing to stick with both of those guys until Taillon and Assad come back? Ultimately the answer might be who is available and what they will cost.
I would not be shocked if they only acquire one starter. However, I’d also not be surprised if they get a couple, as another injury in the rotation would leave another but gap if they only get one guy to join the rotation.
Reliever #2
Based on everything I stated earlier, I think it is likely that the Cubs add only one reliever. They should be getting Hodge back, and if he is not effective, they have several options of a taxi squad that could be used to burn some innings in non-competitive games and then shuttled to Iowa.
Kriske, Roberts, Little, Hollowell and Pearson are some of the names. Any we could even seen the return of Tyson Miller if he improves.
Adding another reliever will probably only happen if the Cubs can get a really great deal for minimal prospect cost.
Cubs in 7 
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