A bi-weekly assessment of how confident I’m feeling when the Cubs call on each member of their bullpen. These assessments are typically based on gut feel, not on the numbers.
Well, it was bound to happen. It appears that a few of the Cubs pitchers who had been pitching in the stratosphere have started to come back to Earth. We’ve seen bad outings from Pomeranz and Flexen – and Pressly continues to allow base runners. I’m going to leave Ben Brown off this list, as I think he’ll be sent down after his rough outing, where he was basically a starter. And Ethan Roberts made a brief cameo before going back to Iowa.
Red means a player has dropped
Green a player has moved up
Blue a player stayed the same
Orange the player is new
No gray hair (extremely high confidence):
–Caleb Thielbar – at the time, his signing was relatively unimpressive for me, but Thielbar has managed to become a lock-down reliever, and is the go-to to bridge from the starter to Keller and Palencia, especially against tough lefty hitters. He did give up a 2-run homer to Cody Bellinger in the 3, but almost 4, home run game. But he hadn’t given up a run in 9 of 10 outings.
Wisps of gray hair (high confidence):
–Brad Keller – He had a couple more rough outings after the Cardinals meltdown, giving up 2 base runners to the Twins and two runs to the Yankees on a Judge homer, so I decided to drop him down a tier. Fortunately, he’s had two good outings since, and I might be overreacting. He struck out the side against the Red Sox on the 19th, looking dominant.
–Daniel Palencia – I’m not sure why I’ve kept him below Thielbar and Keller. He has allowed no walks and 1 hit in his last 5 outings, and dropped his ERA to 1.53. But it might be his inexperience that is leading to some prolonged, possibly misguided, hesitation with trusting him.
–Ryan Brasier – Brasier keeps chugging along with good results. Counsell seems to be keeping him away from really high leverage, but he may have done enough to earn that trust.
Some gray hair (medium confidence):
–Drew Pomeranz – I was bound to happen that Pomeranz and Flexen would start to struggle. Neither are overpowering, or have great stuff — so a regression was inevitable. Pomeranz has not been terrible, but he has allowed 5 hits, 4 walks and 5 runs in his last 6 outings. The 3-run home run allowed to Alex Bregman finished that game off.
–Chris Flexen – In my last post, I was wondering what would happen with Flexen, and whether he could fit into the spot vacated by the Taillon injury. He’s been counted on heavily in the bullpen games the Cubs have chose to go with – and the results have been downright awful. He’s given up 14 hits, 4 walks and 9 earned runs over his last 3 games (10.2 innings). I’m hoping he can go back to provided a couple of innings when a starter has to be pulled early. But when the Cubs trade for pitching help, and when Hodge gets back, I could see him being a potential DFA. His contribution have been nice, but his Cubs’ career may have struck midnight.
–Ryan Pressley – He is still giving up baserunners in almost every outing – with at least one hit or walk in 6 straight games. He was finally burned with the 2-run homer given up to the Red Sox in a game where Cade Horton had pitched very well. Having him below Flexen might be harsh, but I just don’t feel confident when he comes into a game
Lots of gray hair (low confidence)
–Brooks Kriske – he had a perfect inning after the bullpen had squandered the game against the Red Sox. I would not expect to see him on the roster for very long, and would only expect him to come in during a blowout.
No hair left (no confidence)
The good news is that the Cubs have sent down any pitchers who would have landed here (in this case Wicks and Roberts) or put them on the IL (Hodge). The bad news is that several of the players they have brought up recently have not been performing well.
Not Applicable (minors or injured):
–Ethan Roberts – Roberts made a cameo, pitching in 1 game and giving up a home run. He really just looks like depth at this point, being used for a game or two in order to rest the more valuable members of the bullpen. With the injuries to Hodge and Taillon, the Cubs had a couple open spots on the active roster. I feel like there might be better “options”, such as Little or Hollowell or even giving Nate Pearson another shot, but Jed decided to to with Roberts and Kriske – and then Ben Brown for the bullpen game. But unlike Flexen and Pomeranz, Roberts has not shown enough to stick around.
–Jordan Wicks – Back to Iowa for Wicks who had one good game and then an absolute stinker. After his rookie season a couple of year ago, I really felt like he could be a solid 4th or 5th starter, but we’ve seen little evidence the past two years of that potential. The guys at the Athletic seem to think he is very likely to be traded, which would not surprise me.
–Porter Hodge – Hodge got shelled in Minnesota and then went back on the IL. His fastball velocity was down in that game, and it showed in the results. I still have hope that he will be a reliable reliever in August and September, but we’ll see.
–Nate Pearson – AAA
–Gavin Hollowell – AAA
–Tom Cosgrove – AAA
–Tyson Miller – AAA
–Luke Little – AAA
–Eli Morgan – IL
Released/DFA’d
Cubs in 7 
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