The latest installment how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or statistics driven…just my gut feel.
The rotation is down to four, and I’m not quite sure what the Cubs will do next. If they wait until trade deadline day to get a starter, that will be 2 more starts that need to be bullpen days. Or do we consider Chris Flexen to be part of the rotation, at least temporarily? For now, I will leave him in the bullpen group.
Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
Black = No Change
Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series
No one at the moment. Boyd and Imanaga both have the potential to land here.
Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series
Matthew Boyd – It was a shame that we could not see him in the All-Star game, but it was much more important for him to shut down the Yankees. He’s given up 2 total runs in his last 4 starts, going 8 innings against the Yanks on just 85 pitches. ay 23rd is the last time he’s given up more than 2 runs in a start, which is unbelievable.
Shota Imanaga – Shota has a first inning hiccup against the Twins, and 3 solo home runs to the Guardians, but has been great otherwise. I do still worry about home runs, as they have accounted for 4 or the 6 runs he’s given up in the 4 games he’s been back. If the wind continues to blow out at Wrigley, he’s going to have to be very careful with those high fastballs. But as we get into the fall weather of September and October, it should become less of an issue.
Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game
The Cubs need to add at at least one pitcher in this tier, and maybe two. When Taillon comes back, he should be able to hold down a #4 or #5 spot in the rotation, but I would fell much better about the Cubs’ chances if they add a #3 and a #4 pitcher.
Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent
Colin Rea – After dropping Rea into the Replace tier, he’s had 3 good starts in a row, which has been critical with Taillon going down, and the Cubs losing both of those bullpen games. His performance against the Twins (which I got to see in person) was fantastic, and helped break up what would have been a 4 game losing streak. The speculation is that he would move back to the bullpen if the Cubs acquire 2 starters, but I think there’s a real chance he could keep his spot, and it might be Horton getting sent down if recent results hold up. At the same time, I’d need to see a couple more good starts to move him up to the next tier.
Cade Horton – Horton has fallen behind Rea in my rankings. He had a sparkling outing against the Guardians, where the Cubs squeaked out a 1-0 win in 10 innings. But that was sandwiched between giving up 6 runs, 7 runs and 4 runs, also while completing fewer than 5 innings. I could see a return to Iowa, or maybe some time in the bullpen unless he is really impressive in his next two starts.
Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training
None
Injured or Minors:
Jameson Taillon – His injury added to the urgency of getting another starter, which does not help the Cubs’ leverage in trade negotiations. Longer-term, if will be interesting to see if Taillon can recapture his early season success to give the Cubs a very solid rotation – depending on who they acquire.
Ben Brown – He’s been good in AAA, and could be a short term replacement for Taillon until a trade is made. But I think the Cubs might want to see more success in Iowa. I could also see him coming back up as a bullpen arm in case one is needed.
Javier Assad – still ramping up, and will not be back until August or September at the earliest.
Cubs in 7 
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