The All-star break is still a couple of weeks away, but the Cubs have finished over half of their regular season games, making this a good time to reflect of some of the surprises, disappointments, and other thoughts on the season.
Biggest Surprises (Positive)
There are two pleasant surprises that stand out to me, so I’ll identify them as 1a and 1b:
1a. The Bullpen – before the season, thoughts on the bullpen were mixed. The Cubs added several arms, but none seemed top-tier. Neither Ryan Presley, Eli Morgan, Ryan Brasier nor Caleb Thielbar were names that moved the needle. Porter Hodge was impressive last season, but was still something of an unproven entity. And Nate Pearson and Tyson Miller had solidified the bullpen in 2024, but had a spotty track record. Julian Merryweather and Keegan Thompson we both offered arbitration, which was somewhat surprising. So the bullpen had lots of depth, but the quality was still very much in question.
Looking at the bullpen before Hodge came back from injury, very few of the arms the Cubs had been counting on were still on the active roster – and those players had not been great. Pressley had been demoted from the closer role, Brasier had been injured much of the season. Only Caleb Thielbar has really been good the whole season.
But a few other players have really stepped up to fill the gaps. Daniel Palencia came up as a set-up man, and then closer. Chris Flexen and Drew Pomeranz have come up and surrendered very little. And Brad Keller, who was a non-roster invitee to Spring Training has been the best of them all.
There have been a few cameos by others (Hollowell, Wicks, Fulmer, Cabrera, Cosgrove, Roberts, Little) – but the group has been so good tat Merryweather was cut loose and Tyson Miller was forced to accept a minor league deal to stick around.
1b. Pete Crow-Armstrong – while I’m sure we all worry about, and possibly even expect, a regression, PCA has already had a full season of success in the first half. His weaknesses are apparent, specifically swinging at everything he sees. But the combination of defense, speed, and surprising power has been a catalyst to a better than expected offense.
2. Matthew Boyd – I was underwhelmed and a bit puzzled that Boyd was the first free agent that the Cubs went after. Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Roki Sasaki and Blake Snell were the guys I was hoping they’d sign. Injuries have hit 3 of those 4 pitches, with only Fried having a good season.
But Boyd has thrived, even with the pressure of being the anchor of the rotation, with Justin Stelle out for the season and Shota Imanaga missing almost two month. With a healthy Imanaga, and some help from a trade, I feel good about Boyd hopefully starting a playoff game this post-season.
3. The Catchers – While Carson Kelly has cooled off, the combination of him, Miguel Amaya and Reese McGuire have provide 17 homers, 56 RBIs and a 131 OPS+. This is compared to the 14 home runs, 73 RBIs and 77 OPS+ for the entire season in 2024. When Amaya suffered an oblique injury, I was worries too much pressure would be put on the shoulders of Kelly. But McGuire has produced 5 homers and a 123 OPS+ in limited time. He’s done so well, it makes me think the Cubs might carry 3 catchers when Amaya comes back.
4. Seiya Suzuki’s power – his OBP is not great, but Seiya has really focused on hitting for more power, and in that department he’s already gone past his career high for home runs.
Other good developments
Kyle Tucker – He had very high expectations, and he’s met them. But it’s more of a pleasure as opposed to a surprise. I’m still holding out hope that he is extended, but the contract would need to be a monster.
Nico Hoerner – hitting for average – especially with runners in scoring position, making solid contact and playing great defense was expected, but good to see. He’s also shown some recent power.
The defense overall – Matt Shaw has made some great plays, and the defense has otherwise sparkled all around the field.
The Surprises (Negative)
1. Pitching Injuries – losing Steele for the season was really rough, and you’d think the Cubs would be an even better position if he was healthy. Losing Imanaga as well has not been good. The Dodgers have had similar injuries, but they have so much depth, it has had less impact for them. The Cubs really need to make a trade for another top line starter, as between Brown, Horton and Rea, the quality has just not been there. And some recent struggles for Jameson Taillon, plus his home runs allowed, have caused the division lead to shrink
2. The bench (catchers excluded) and “Shaw insurance” – Justin Turner was brough in to mash lefties in a straight platoon with Michael Busch, who is terrible against them. Unfortunately, he just hasn’t done much.
The third base situation was a bit different. After trading away Isaac Parades and missing out on Alex Bregman, Matt Shaw was going to be given the job. But, as he was a rookie, the Cubs made a few moves as insurance. And when Shaw struggled early in the season, they tried to cash in. But none of the players they had acquired to back up Shaw did much of anything. Rule 5 acquisition Gage Workman showed why the Tigers had left him exposed. Jon Berti has provided very little except for speed, and Vidal Brujan has done the same. Nicky Lopez, who was brought back for a brief stint, played good defense but did not hit anything.
That has led to rumors that the Cubs are still looking for a third baseman to back Shaw up of even take his spot to provide more offensive production, which would move him to the bench for this season.
3. The NL Central has not sucked – in fact, it has been the best division in baseball. So while the Cubs record has been very good, they have not broken away from anyone but the Pirates. As of today, 3 NL Central teams would make the playoffs, which would have been unthinkable before the season started.
Overall thoughts
The team is doing better than I expected, by several games, despite the Steele and Imanaga injuries. I do have some worries about regression, especially by PCA, but the team had the opportunity to make some moves and bring in more talent. The Brewers and Cardinals have been reticent in the past to make deadline deals, so that should work in the Cubs’ favor. Still, it’s been a fun first half.
Cubs in 7 
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