The latest installment how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or statistics driven…just my gut feel.
On the return day of Shota Imanaga, I had to figure out how I’m feeling about him before his first start back. Overall, the rotation has been the weak link, and has been the biggest factor into some recent struggles.
Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
Black = No Change
Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series
No one at the moment
Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series
Matthew Boyd – Last night, the Cubs needed a “stopper,” which is, by definition, a pitcher who can stop a losing streak. While the streak was only at 3, it felt very important to get a win against a division opponent, and get a good starting pitching performance after three straight bad starts. The offense provided runs early, and Boyd did the rest, shutting out the Cardinals over 6 innings. I recently had Jameson Taillon in this tier, and we all know what happened next.
Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game
Jameson Taillon – I strongly considered moving Taillon down two notches in this update, as he has been brutal in his last two starts. It’s no secret that he’s being haunted by the home run this season, already giving up a league high 21. Previous to his last two outings, he was able to limit the damage, but not lately. Hopefully, he’ll be able to course correct, and get back to providing innings and keeping the team in the game. Any dreams that I or others had about the kick-change turning him into a dominant starter were misplaced.
Cade Horton – At the moment, I’d consider Horton to be the Cubs 3rd most reliable starter behind Boyd and Imanaga. In his last game against Seattle, he was the victim of multiple defensive lapses (some caused by the wind and sun, others not), but he’s been solid otherwise. With this team, if a starter can limit the opposition to 2 or 3 earned runs over 5 or 6 innings, I’d consider that a win. And Horton has done this in 5 of his 8 starts. He also has avoided giving up a home run in his last 4 starts, which is a outlier for the current staff.
Shota Imanaga – He’s finally back, and it could not come a moment too soon. The rotation was able to hold together in May and early June, but the last couple of weeks, the ship has been leaking water – with Taillon’s last two starts being a tipping point. I’m placing Imanaga in this tier due to coming back from injury, but I’m really hoping he will move up quickly by showing that he does not need much time to ramp up. I am a bit concerned about his tendency to pitch up in the strike zone, and get fly ball outs, as home runs have been flying out of parks all over the place this season, especially with the warmer weather.
Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent
Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training
Colin Rea – In his last 6 starts, Rea has given up 6, 6, 0, 4, 2 and 7 earned runs. As rumors swirl about the Cubs adding a starter, Rea would be the logical choice as the spot in the rotation that pitcher would take. Until that happens, he’ll probably stay in the rotation, so perhaps he can right the ship. Ben Brown would also have landed here.
Injured or Minors:
Ben Brown – With Imanaga finally back, Brown made it very easy to determine that he would be the pitcher to lose his spot in the rotation. I feel like he’s been on the precipice of losing his starting spot a couple of times, but the injuries to Steele, Imanaga, Assad and even Birdsong, plus the early ineffectiveness of Jordan Wicks, gave the Cubs very little starting depth that was ready for the majors. Plus, Brown has shown flashes of brilliance, including 2 really nice games in a row against Cincinnati and Detroit, and he was pretty good in a win against Milwaukee. But in the other 4 of his last 7 starts, he gave up 6 earned runs twice and 8 earned runs twice, which gave the offence very little chance to compete. Lots has been written about his lack of a 3rd effective pitch, so it remains to be seen whether he can improve his changeup enough to get back in the rotation this season, whether he might be better suited for the bullpen, or whether we ay not see him back on the major league roster until 2026.
Javier Assad – still ramping up, and will not be back until July at the earliest.
Cubs in 7 
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