It seems like Seiya Suzuki take lots of first pitch strikes, putting him behind in almost every count. My initial thought is that he should consider ambushing a few pitches, and just swing away. But looking a bit more deeply into the numbers, it might just be all about the pitcher’s ability to throw a first-pitch strike.
It’s no secret that the count in an at bat is absolutely critical to the eventual outcome. In MLB this season, the splits after a 1-0 count are .253/.375/.425 (.800 OPS). After an 0-1 count, the splits are .216/.263/.355 (.599 OPS). that is a .200 pint difference.
But Suzuki’s split differences even more stark. After being 1-0, he is at .330/.408/.616 (1.024 OPS) and after 0-1, .200/.243/.450 (.693 OPS), a .331 point difference.
Of course, Suzuki can’t control the pitcher’s control. The only thing he can do is offer at a first pitch to keep pitchers from throwing hittable first-pitch strikes to put him down in the count.
The bad news is that the numbers show that Suzuki is not very good when he does swing at the first pitch. Across MLB, hitters take the first pitch 65.7% of the time. Splits when taking the first pitch are .235/.327/.380, and when swinging away, they are .263/.292/.432. So, a lower OBP and higher slug when swinging at the first pitch, which seems logical. When making contact when swinging away, the splits are .340/.349/.580.
For Suziki, he is taking the first pitch at a whopping 93.5% of the time. Splits when taking the first pitch are .261/.322/.539 and when swinging at the first pitch are .205/.234/.409. When making contact after swinging at the first pitch, the numbers are .235/.235/.529 – which is WAY below league average.
I’m neither a former player, nor a hitting coach, but these numbers would suggest to me that Suzuki is not comfortable swinging at the first pitch, not does he do a great job of making hard contact when he choose to, on those rare occasions. What he is much better than the rest of the league is producing of a full count: .193/.455/.327 league average versus .286/.500/.1.214 for Suzuki, and OPS almost .900 points higher than league average.
So if you see the pitcher get ahead of Suzuki, odds are, it won’t be a successful at bat. But if the pitcher falls behind, or he works a full count, expect something good to happen. It will be interesting to see if he adjusts his approach at all to try to get better at hunting specific first pitches, but making that kind of adjustment in the middle of a season might be difficult.
Cubs in 7 
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